Is the end of the Union in sight? (It may well be but then again…)

[Evil Genius]

The number of RC's versus Prods has been increasing throughout this Century.

The number of Nationalist voters (versus Unionist voters, that is) has not.

Therefore until Nationalism can address that weakness, it will make no progress.

Assuming the increase is at least partly due to difference in birth rates, you'll surely have to wait a number of years until such changes filter through to the ballot box. After all, the voting age is 18.

Except that the difference in the birth rates etc was just as marked in the last 18 years of the 20th Century. Why hasn't that  filtered through by now?

Those people born after around 1980 are now approaching their 30's. They were not even born during the "bad old days" of Discrimination etc, and childhood memories of (the tailend of) The Troubles must be fading, too.

Since voting figures clearly indicate that the (former) rise in the Nationalist share of the vote has stalled over the last decade, this suggests that this generation may no longer be voting Nationalist in the numbers in which preceeding generations did.

And it is my hope that as tensions and emotions increasingly settle down in NI generally; the economic imbalance between NI and ROI evens out (since the demise of the Celtic Tiger); and apathy and indifference towards NI in the ROI increases, then this drift away from Nationalism by people in the Catholic community will continue.

[Evil Genius]

I'm not going to analyse the stats as I don't know enough about them but i have 2 points.

1) Could people who left the north and moved to the south move back up to vote in a referendum.

No. There would have to be a minimum residential qualification to vote.

2) Some here say it could happen in 2050, maybe its 2100 but it seems it is likely to happen at some stage.

Why is it "likely"? I agree it's possible,  but NI is now 90 years old - that's older than the great majority of the members of the United Nations.

Would unionist not be better off making a deal now with the south ensuring more power and better representation for their people instead of waiting until they are in a position of weakness? Unionists could surely get some better concessions now with regards to identity, citizenship or whatever else.

With there being no sign of Unity [sic] anywhere on the horizon, why should Unionism give the notion some sort of credence? This would only be giving hope to Nationalism, with the chance (however slim) that it might become self-fulfilling.

It is up to Nationalism  to see that this topic (UI) be placed on the Agenda, not Unionism. If and when they manage to do so, then we will respond.

[Lar Naparka]

I looked at the election results summaries on http: arc.ac.uk/elections/ and I copied what I found there to compile my figures. 
Those returns I used represent the percentage of votes cast in all Local District, Assembly, European and Westminster elections of the last decade. Incidentally, there was two of each.
So I think the data gives the best available indication of current voting trends in NI.
At first glance, it can be seen that the Green vote (as in a UI referendum) is holding remarkably stable in the low- forties range.
In a head-to-head confrontation between Orange and Green, this is where the vast majority of yes votes will come from.
On the other hand, the DUP/UUP percentage of the vote is shrinking steadily and this is where the highest percentage of Orange (ie No) votes will be found. The last Westminster result saw an almost dead heat between the core Orange and Green percentages. (42.2% vs. 42 %.)
(All this of course is only relevant if there is to be a UI poll any time in the near to medium term future.)
One has to look to the Alliance and Others to see which side is going to get the extra 8% or more to carry it over the line.

Looking at the failure of the Nationalist vote to increase while the Catholic population is growing in numbers, one must feel that a growing number of voters from this sector are switching to either Alliance or some flavour of Others.

However, even of the vast majority of those 'stray' Nationalist voters were to return to the fold for a UI referendum, I don't see the Yes side making up the deficit.

But there is a very strong correlation between the respective performances of DUP/UUP and Alliance/Others.
As one rises, the other falls and vice versa and so I agree with EG that the majority of voters in the middle ground are Unionists. There is no other explanation for this 'mirror' effect.
'Others,' in particular, seem to be heavily linked to the 'Orange' bloc.  The up/down effect is apparent throughout all of the elections from the base one onwards.

The tie up between DUP/UUP and the Alliance party is to be seen alright but it is nowhere as pronounced as the previous one.
My guess is that Alliance is gaining support in Nationalist regions and this increase is masking the rise in the Catholic/Nationalist population figures. However, the inverse link to the fortunes of the DUP/UUP is evident all the time so I guess it's still got a strong Unionist in membership. Maybe 50/50 or even 40/60 as the increasing number of Catholic voters has to be accommodated somewhere and Aliance is the most likely place.
In a yes/No vote, the vast majority of Others are going to vote against a UI.

Taking the results of the 2010 Westminster election and comparing them with the previous one (2005,) you find that the DUP/UUP vote decreased by 11.2%
This decrease was matched exactly by the rise of Alliance, (2.4) Others (8.6) and SF/SDLP.  (0.2)
Somewhat co-incidental perhaps but the fact that Others gained by far the most of this increase tells its own story.
In the Europeans under consideration, the DUP/UUP vote went down by 13.5%, while the Others made a 12.9% gain.

Unionists may not be supporting the main parties to the same extent as they once did but their votes are staying within the Unionist fold.

When I tried to assess the present strength of the four groups, I did so by adding their  respective totals over the number of elections they contested. (Eight for all others and six for the Alliance.)
It's a rough and ready method of calculation but it applies to all concerned in equal measure.

Doing this and rounding figures to nearest 0.5, I got:
(The figures in parentheses are the returns from the most recent election. Westminster 2010.)

DUP/UUP: ...45.....(42)
Alliance: .......5.....(6.3)
Others: ........10... (11.5)
SDLP/SF:..... 41... (42)

Here, once more, you'll find the second set is almost matching the slide in DUP/UUP with the rise in Alliance/Others.  It's a case of Unionists switching around but not crossing the divide.
At the very least the middle ground will go Unionist by 2:1 and probably by 3:1 or more.

I can't see a UI in those figures.

[mayogodhelpus@gmail.com]

The number of RC's versus Prods has been increasing throughout this Century.

The number of Nationalist voters (versus Unionist voters, that is) has not.

Therefore until Nationalism can address that weakness, it will make no progress.

Assuming the increase is at least partly due to difference in birth rates, you'll surely have to wait a number of years until such changes filter through to the ballot box. After all, the voting age is 18.

Except that the difference in the birth rates etc was just as marked in the last 18 years of the 20th Century. Why hasn't that  filtered through by now?

Those people born after around 1980 are now approaching their 30's. They were not even born during the "bad old days" of Discrimination etc, and childhood memories of (the tailend of) The Troubles must be fading, too.

Since voting figures clearly indicate that the (former) rise in the Nationalist share of the vote has stalled over the last decade, this suggests that this generation may no longer be voting Nationalist in the numbers in which preceeding generations did.

And it is my hope that as tensions and emotions increasingly settle down in NI generally; the economic imbalance between NI and ROI evens out (since the demise of the Celtic Tiger); and apathy and indifference towards NI in the ROI increases, then this drift away from Nationalism by people in the Catholic community will continue.

This will turn quite quick if people in the Republic get a whiff of a United Ireland.

On the other side, I know people will think I am banging the same old drum (wait for some comparrison) but Sinn Féin will be a tick in the no box for a very high percentage of people in the Republic when they weighing things up.

A sure E.G. wait until you see the Gaelic Tiger it will put the Celtic Tiger in the ha'penny penny piece place.   

[Gold]

I'm not going to analyse the stats as I don't know enough about them but i have 2 points.

1) Could people who left the north and moved to the south move back up to vote in a referendum.

No. There would have to be a minimum residential qualification to vote.

2) Some here say it could happen in 2050, maybe its 2100 but it seems it is likely to happen at some stage.

Why is it "likely"? I agree it's possible,  but NI is now 90 years old - that's older than the great majority of the members of the United Nations.

Would unionist not be better off making a deal now with the south ensuring more power and better representation for their people instead of waiting until they are in a position of weakness? Unionists could surely get some better concessions now with regards to identity, citizenship or whatever else.

With there being no sign of Unity [sic] anywhere on the horizon, why should Unionism give the notion some sort of credence? This would only be giving hope to Nationalism, with the chance (however slim) that it might become self-fulfilling.

It is up to Nationalism  to see that this topic (UI) be placed on the Agenda, not Unionism. If and when they manage to do so, then we will respond.

Why do unionists want to be part of the UK?? I never understand it.

It appears to me they have no real culture--other than wading in from another land--being given land and then pretending the world ends at an invisible border. Therefore this part of the island is rendered almost identity-less--it must leave unionists feeling weird, like they are just camping out in a place that isnt really theirs. I mean all the towns names --like Belfast--an anglasised version of "mouth of the river Farset" --Derry --Doire --meaning "oak grove." It must leave you feeling like your 'holding what you have' for dear life --wee corners of Belfast and other towns--simply custodians for now, not forever.

Sure nearly all middle class protestants go to university in England and Scotland--many never return--they feel more at home over there--surely this trend will affect voting patterns negatively for unionists. Sure they'll still have the "yeeeeeeooooooooo" brigade who'll always vote for anyone holding a union jack but it's bound to affect things.

I mind years ago i went to USA for a soccer trip and me and this fella from east belfast were staying in a family home of the host team--they had loads of people over at the house to meet the "irish guys" during the 2 weeks and the clown i was with tired himself out telling everyone "no we're not the irish guys, we're not irish, we're nothern irish" everyone was like "yeah, ok" We even played a game and this fella kicked someone and the USA kid was sayin "you irish bastard" and the boy said "i'm not irish i'm northern irish"!!!! He'd a permanant confused frown on his face, it was a laugh. They also welcomed us with a tricolour on the wall in our bedroom--the wee man near had a breakdown! HE'd never been outta east belfast and probably didnt even know that if you keep driving you'll get to dublin (to be fair he probably had never heard of lisburn, never mind longford etc)

[dillinger]

Why do Unionist want to remain with the UK? I can only think like us all a lot off what people think and do comes from our parents. Ex. if your Da supports Rangers or Celtic you will likley do the same. It's how your brought up.

[Hurler on the Bitch]

 

Holy Feck! Why oh Why does this have to come down to a base sum? The odds of Larne, Carrick, Lisburn, East Belfast etc etc accepting a crude sum is NIL! We will have partition re-drawn to ensure that Unionism survives .. at the best / worst case we will have a 'Northern Ireland' the size of Jersey based in south-east Antrim and North Down - this is a nonsense to believe that the 32 is on the cards. That lesson was learnt in 1922.

[lynchbhoy]

Holy Feck! Why oh Why does this have to come down to a base sum? The odds of Larne, Carrick, Lisburn, East Belfast etc etc accepting a crude sum is NIL! We will have partition re-drawn to ensure that Unionism survives .. at the best / worst case we will have a 'Northern Ireland' the size of Jersey based in south-east Antrim and North Down - this is a nonsense to believe that the 32 is on the cards. That lesson was learnt in 1922.

the point being missed by most is that a reunification will be pushed not by the Irish, but by the british.
the biggest supporters of a reunification wil lbe Irish republicans and their previous enemies - the British gov - who want to get rid of the millstone of the north from their hands.
The population swing will happen. However, will the brit gov engage in their infamous 'dirty tricks' to manipulate things again?
ie taking jobs back to blighty, God knows what else they can and would do - as they were liable to do anything in the past (including killing ) to maintain the status quo !
Anything they can think of to halp quicken the referendum - they will do it.
I am sure the 'lost voters' the apathetic nationalists and those that have moved south, will head back up the road again for such a referendum.
then it will be up to the southern voters and the Irish Gov to see what changes they can and will make to integrate and thus appease those looking to maintain their same benefits/health system etc.

[HiMucker]

The number of RC's versus Prods has been increasing throughout this Century.

The number of Nationalist voters (versus Unionist voters, that is) has not.

Therefore until Nationalism can address that weakness, it will make no progress.

Assuming the increase is at least partly due to difference in birth rates, you'll surely have to wait a number of years until such changes filter through to the ballot box. After all, the voting age is 18.

Except that the difference in the birth rates etc was just as marked in the last 18 years of the 20th Century. Why hasn't that  filtered through by now?

Those people born after around 1980 are now approaching their 30's. They were not even born during the "bad old days" of Discrimination etc, and childhood memories of (the tailend of) The Troubles must be fading, too.

Since voting figures clearly indicate that the (former) rise in the Nationalist share of the vote has stalled over the last decade, this suggests that this generation may no longer be voting Nationalist in the numbers in which preceeding generations did.

And it is my hope that as tensions and emotions increasingly settle down in NI generally; the economic imbalance between NI and ROI evens out (since the demise of the Celtic Tiger); and apathy and indifference towards NI in the ROI increases, then this drift away from Nationalism by people in the Catholic community will continue.

Come on EG, i enjoy your posts to get a balanced rounded view from the 'other side' but are you seriously saying discrimination by the establishment against nationalists was over after 1980!

[balladmaker]

When Scotland pull the plug and go for full independence, how secure with NI be within the Union, especially when most NI Unionists are of Scottish extraction in the first place.

Interesting couple of decades ahead for those around to see it.

[Rossfan]

50% of Scotland's economy is public sector so I can't see them going for full independence any time soon unless the English boot them out.
Mind you at some stage the English will get fed up subsidising the rest of Great Britain plus the North and may pull the plug on the "United Kingdom" and set up their own independent State. :

[Franko]

I'm not sure of this but I thought I read somewhere before that most if not all the North Sea oil is Scottish?

[Lar Naparka]

I'm not sure of this but I thought I read somewhere before that most if not all the North Sea oil is Scottish?

I can't say for certain.
Sullam Voe in the Shetlands is the place where the crude oil is brought ashore but it's not refined there. I know that gas from fields off the West Shetlands coast is brought there as well—but the legalisation setting up the operations was passed at Westminster.
I suppose that the resources there belong to the UK.
What might happen if Scotland were to become independent is another matter.

[Banana Man]

I'm not sure of this but I thought I read somewhere before that most if not all the North Sea oil is Scottish?

I can't say for certain.
Sullam Voe in the Shetlands is the place where the crude oil is brought ashore but it's not refined there. I know that gas from fields off the West Shetlands coast is brought there as well—but the legalisation setting up the operations was passed at Westminster.
I suppose that the resources there belong to the UK.
What might happen if Scotland were to become independent is another matter.

i'm not sure but i thought i heard there is only about 5 years worth of oil left meaning in 5 years time this source of revenue won't be available to the scots for independence....

[mayogodhelpus@gmail.com]

I'm not sure of this but I thought I read somewhere before that most if not all the North Sea oil is Scottish?

I don't think so, I remember seeing or reading about this some time ago (and my memory could be playing tricks on me), but sometime between the 1930's and 1950's, England slyly gave up a miniscule amount of territory to Scotland meaning that the border no longer reached the sea facing direct East, but in a North East fashion. It seems it was English MP's (or whoever decides these things) idea to strenghten the Union by making Scotland's succession less enticing. It was also to strenghten English claims in the case of a U.K. breakup. The Union has always been for the benefit of England first.

I am far from sure on this by the way. Its been quite a while since I came across this information and I cannot remember the source or its credibility. Has anyone else heard about this?