Given the large scale immigration into both parts of the island it is not inconceivable that the immigrants will decide the fate of unification in any future vote.
Assuming they are neutral now how do posters think they would vote in a future referendum and what would the issues be?
For the record here are a few off the top of my head:
Issues that might lead them to vote for 32 county Ireland:
* A lot of the Eastern Europeans are Catholic
* They see a thriving economy in the South with good prospects
* Sympathies might lay easier with the underdog against the Imperial power
Issues that might lead them to vote for the 6 remaining in the UK:
* No Health Service in the South
* A taste for vigilante killings among Republicans (not unknown on the other side)
* A government with a shocking record of corruption
* A state unable to deal with rising crime
* An infrastructure 20 years behind where it should be
It may come down to those voters and by my reckoning we (Nationalists) have an awful lot to do.
I'll give this thread a 15-20 page minimum!
Quote from: his holiness nb on October 24, 2007, 12:14:02 PM
I'll give this thread a 15-20 page minimum!
The reported halfheartedness towards the nationalist ideals , on which the state was founded(another thread on here) of the native population of the 26 counties would be more of factor at the current moment, if that persists......
Eastern Europeans being catholics would be irrelevant in the 26 as religious divisions are rarely apparent these days?
* A state unable to deal with rising crime
NI is exactly dealing well with rising crime either if you deal with other threads on this page
* An infrastructure 20 years behind where it should be
Firstly, if you presume it people in the North voting on this, the state of the M50 is neither here nor there. There is substantial investment in infrastructure and in the timescale for these types of votes the infrastructure will be quite good.
Up North immigrants would be much more likely to be attacked from unionist bigots, and Unionist politicians are generally Tory like in their attitude to Johnny Foreigner (this in spite of Trimble's letter in Portuguese to all Portuguese in the Upper Bann constituency ahead of the last Westminster Election, which did him a fat lot of good ;D). So the immigrant vote for a united Ireland is pretty much in the bag
A lot of moderate Unionists (who care more about economics than religion) are warming to the idea of breaking the link with Britain as well.
Unity is merely a matter of time and I wouldn't rule out 2016
Jesus Tony, you must be the most optimistic person I've ever come across. That's despite all your predictions never come to pass! ;)
5times I think they would be allowed to vote as recent noises from FF is that they are looking to allow the franchise for general elections to be extended to immigrants as they are resident in the country and therefore have a right to have a say in what happens(I agree with this concept). I would, however, doubt that they would be the deciding factor in a referendum as i would suggest they have no real interest in the history of the country and as the majority of them live in th 26 they are happy enopugh with their current lot i would say.
Up north, there may be a larger turnout obviously but the numbers at this stage probably are not high enough for it to be the difference.
For what it is worth, I agree with Tony here and have repeated on numerous occasions that I believe there will be a ceremonial event on the 100 year anniversary of the Easter Rising which will be the start of the "official" handover process. De facto it will have happened economically and logistically in the next 9 years and many of the current systems eg health, revenue, will merge in so far as they will have a common strategy.
The DUp language is changing and it is evident to me now looking from the outside in that they realise that they will be in a better state in a united Ireland. Once the average unionists on the street have seen this they will soon follow, but there will be some form of concessions made to them.
I think we need to be careful here - theres potential for the huge pro unionist vote in the South to default and vote that the free state is returned to the UK. Have any of you tried to reason with these people? I refer you to the denationalisation of irish rugby thread. Theres a lot of people ashamed to be Irish in and outside the GAA. Add to that the huge Northern vote of those whose only claim to being British is that their parents told them that their grandparents were - a significant if poorly thought out choice of opinion, then I could see Britain actiually reclaiming Ireland in a number of years. As they say all it talkes for no sense to prevail is for good people to do nothing...
Mindye It would be nice for Ireland to be united in time for the centenary of the 1916 rising.
Quote from: 5iveTimes on October 24, 2007, 12:20:12 PM
Would "immigrants" be allowed to vote in any such referendum?
I used to work at elections and if I remember correctly, citizens of other EU states who are resident in the ROI can vote in certain elections, but they do not have a vote in referendums (if I remember correctly)
I would agree with BC that they would not be that interested in it that they would be a deciding factor anyway. There was 21k pols who recently voted from the ROI in their home elections. This might suggest that these people still care what happens in their home country (naturally enough) and may not be here for the long term! (eg. construction industry slows, unemployment rises)
Quote from: oneillcup2007 on October 24, 2007, 01:55:14 PM
I think we need to be careful here - theres potential for the huge pro unionist vote in the South to default and vote that the free state is returned to the UK. Have any of you tried to reason with these people?
:D Where is this huge unionist vote in the south? the 26 counties were changed from a free state to a republic a long time ago.
I wouldnt be too worried about the imagrants, do the people in the south want to unite. Alot of people in the South see the North as a ecconomic drain on the British govenerment and would be asking the question on whether we want to take that over. I would be all up for a United Ireland but the ecconomics would have to be right.
Quote from: Tankie on October 24, 2007, 02:06:54 PM
I wouldnt be too worried about the imagrants, do the people in the south want to unite. Alot of people in the South see the North as a ecconomic drain on the British govenerment and would be asking the question on whether we want to take that over. I would be all up for a United Ireland but the ecconomics would have to be right.
Oh ai! - I'm all right Jack!
- Cheers! :'(
Quote from: Goats Do Shave on October 24, 2007, 02:31:29 PM
Oh ai! - I'm all right Jack!
- Cheers! :'(
you sound surprised ???? surely this isnt news to you
Quote from: Goats Do Shave on October 24, 2007, 02:31:29 PM
Quote from: Tankie on October 24, 2007, 02:06:54 PM
I wouldnt be too worried about the imagrants, do the people in the south want to unite. Alot of people in the South see the North as a ecconomic drain on the British govenerment and would be asking the question on whether we want to take that over. I would be all up for a United Ireland but the ecconomics would have to be right.
Oh ai! - I'm all right Jack!
- Cheers! :'(
thats the common consensus down here Goats.
Would be much of the same opinion even myself ! !
however the responsiblity has to be taken on by EU, Brit etc gov to inject huge cash into NI to keep it afloat and promote foreign investment/industry when transferring ownership back to the rest of Ireland.
I certainly dont want to be paying my considerable tax money to keep those work shy civil servants, claim loving psni/ruc and dole scrounging layabouts from NI in the lazy life they are accustomed to.
Tankie may be mentally retarded, but he is on the ball here in relation to what most free-staters think !
:D
Quote from: Goats Do Shave on October 24, 2007, 02:31:29 PM
Quote from: Tankie on October 24, 2007, 02:06:54 PM
I wouldnt be too worried about the imagrants, do the people in the south want to unite. Alot of people in the South see the North as a ecconomic drain on the British govenerment and would be asking the question on whether we want to take that over. I would be all up for a United Ireland but the ecconomics would have to be right.
Oh ai! - I'm all right Jack!
- Cheers! :'(
Whats the point in us all being broke. We have seen how badly Germany struggled with reunification. Unification is something that I would want to take place but not if it is going to set us all back years. I would also be looking for a 70% Yes vote from the north as a mininum because everyone would need to be on board for it to work.
If the European Union peoples had adopted the same attitude as Tankie the free state would be living a hand to mouth existence
Quote from: lynchbhoy on October 24, 2007, 02:39:02 PM
Tankie may be mentally retarded, but he is on the ball here in relation to what most free-staters think !
:D
Everything I say is well thought out and researched, it just a shame that people from outside south Dublin cannot see our logic and abuse us for it ;D
I actually think quite a few of the immigrants would vote to remain part of the UK, like it or not no matter what people think of British citizenship, it is still held in high regard (rightly or wrongly) by many foreign nationals from both europe and farther afield.
Quote from: T Fearon on October 24, 2007, 02:45:17 PM
If the European Union peoples had adopted the same attitude as Tankie the free state would be living a hand to mouth existence
But we are now giving back to the EU, I aint to confident that the North would really benifit us financially!
Quote from: Tankie on October 24, 2007, 02:47:49 PM
Quote from: lynchbhoy on October 24, 2007, 02:39:02 PM
Tankie may be mentally retarded, but he is on the ball here in relation to what most free-staters think !
:D
Everything I say is well thought out and researched, it just a shame that people from outside south Dublin cannot see our logic and abuse us for it ;D
apologies,
I couldnt help putting that in
It game me great amusement writing it.
Glad you took it in the way it was intended! :D
Quote from: lynchbhoy on October 24, 2007, 02:50:41 PM
Quote from: Tankie on October 24, 2007, 02:47:49 PM
Quote from: lynchbhoy on October 24, 2007, 02:39:02 PM
Tankie may be mentally retarded, but he is on the ball here in relation to what most free-staters think !
:D
Everything I say is well thought out and researched, it just a shame that people from outside south Dublin cannot see our logic and abuse us for it ;D
apologies,
I couldnt help putting that in
It game me great amusement writing it.
Glad you took it in the way it was intended! :D
Sure its Cake Day in work today so in 5 mins i'm off to the tea station so how couldnt i take it the funny way.
Roll on the cake tho, really hoping for Black Forrest today ;)
Quote from: Tankie on October 24, 2007, 02:56:20 PM
Sure its Cake Day in work today so in 5 mins i'm off to the tea station so how couldnt i take it the funny way.
Roll on the cake tho, really hoping for Black Forrest today ;)
jeez Tankie
where do you work - that sounds like heaven to me !
Must be the civil service !
I'd prob eat most of the cake myself!
:o
Black forrest gateaus are so disappointing. Sound great, look great, taste bland. I dont even like the cherries.
I used to get the best cake ever when I worked in a clothes shop in Dublin as a student.
One of the lads wives used to make a black forrest gateaux for us every so often. It was fantastic.
She was deaf and dumb, but a magnificent baker.
Evey Black forrest Gateau since has been a major disappointment
Quote from: lynchbhoy on October 24, 2007, 03:41:40 PM
Quote from: Tankie on October 24, 2007, 02:56:20 PM
Sure its Cake Day in work today so in 5 mins i'm off to the tea station so how couldnt i take it the funny way.
Roll on the cake tho, really hoping for Black Forrest today ;)
jeez Tankie
where do you work - that sounds like heaven to me !
Must be the civil service !
I'd prob eat most of the cake myself!
:o
Black forrest gateaus are so disappointing. Sound great, look great, taste bland. I dont even like the cherries.
I used to get the best cake ever when I worked in a clothes shop in Dublin as a student.
One of the lads wives used to make a black forrest gateaux for us every so often. It was fantastic.
She was deaf and dumb, but a magnificent baker.
Evey Black forrest Gateau since has been a major disappointment
So Back forest Cateau shouldn't be the official Cake at the celebration of reunification then?
May i suggest some form of Ice Cream Cake?
neopolitan, ma?
Quote from: lynchbhoy on October 24, 2007, 03:41:40 PM
Quote from: Tankie on October 24, 2007, 02:56:20 PM
Sure its Cake Day in work today so in 5 mins i'm off to the tea station so how couldnt i take it the funny way.
Roll on the cake tho, really hoping for Black Forrest today ;)
jeez Tankie
where do you work - that sounds like heaven to me !
Must be the civil service !
I'd prob eat most of the cake myself!
:o
Black forrest gateaus are so disappointing. Sound great, look great, taste bland. I dont even like the cherries.
I used to get the best cake ever when I worked in a clothes shop in Dublin as a student.
One of the lads wives used to make a black forrest gateaux for us every so often. It was fantastic.
She was deaf and dumb, but a magnificent baker.
Evey Black forrest Gateau since has been a major disappointment
The Black forest was top work by todays organiser, i hear what you saying that they can taste bland but with fresh cream it is just great. there was then some celebrations sweets to have with a cup of tea. Great stuff altogether.
And no i don't work for the Civil Service. I work for a Multi National and they are mad for team bonding and other crap, they just don't realise that in Ireland we see team bonding as a time to do nothing but eat cake and drink tea!
Quote from: Tankie on October 24, 2007, 04:53:21 PM
Quote from: lynchbhoy on October 24, 2007, 03:41:40 PM
Quote from: Tankie on October 24, 2007, 02:56:20 PM
Sure its Cake Day in work today so in 5 mins i'm off to the tea station so how couldnt i take it the funny way.
Roll on the cake tho, really hoping for Black Forrest today ;)
jeez Tankie
where do you work - that sounds like heaven to me !
Must be the civil service !
I'd prob eat most of the cake myself!
:o
Black forrest gateaus are so disappointing. Sound great, look great, taste bland. I dont even like the cherries.
I used to get the best cake ever when I worked in a clothes shop in Dublin as a student.
One of the lads wives used to make a black forrest gateaux for us every so often. It was fantastic.
She was deaf and dumb, but a magnificent baker.
Evey Black forrest Gateau since has been a major disappointment
The Black forest was top work by todays organiser, i hear what you saying that they can taste bland but with fresh cream it is just great. there was then some celebrations sweets to have with a cup of tea. Great stuff altogether.
And no i don't work for the Civil Service. I work for a Multi National and they are mad for team bonding and other crap, they just don't realise that in Ireland we see team bonding as a time to do nothing but eat cake and drink tea!
Would don't be working for a descendant of Marie-Antoinette by any chance?
Hot Chocolate Fudge Cake is nice.
Only citizens can vote in referenda in the south. The amount of current immigrants who will become citizens will be pretty small I imagine. I mean the majority of our current immigrants are from within the EU. Why would they take up Irish citizenship when they get all those rights by virtue of their EU citizenship...except the right to vote in a referendum? As for those from outside the EU zone, I'd say the percentage of those that become citizens is small. Firstly it's not easy. Secondly a lot of countries don't allow dual nationality, for instance India. Where we might think Irish citizenship is more advantageous, a good few Indians I know won't take Irish citizenship for that reason. Ultimately, like us when we emigrated, 99% of emigrants dream of moving home some day. So I reckon the number of immigrants turned citizens will be so small as to make no difference. But in a hypothetcal situation who knows? I'd say still an overwhelming vote for unification in the south. I mean most people will vote with their hearts. Why? Well someone would have to make the economic arguement against in any event to catch people's ears. Who among the current parties in the Dáil will do that, really? And if you think Fine Gael would I'm afraid you've not a clue, you need to stop being lead around by nose. Saving that only the unionist parties of the North would, and lets be honest, if there is one bunch of politicians suds hate more then their own, it's the DUP/UUP. Using German reunification as an example, a less storied split in my opinion than our own, the moans and groans about economics only came later, and I still think the vast majority of Germans would do it again.
Quote from: Tankie on October 24, 2007, 02:39:23 PM
Quote from: Goats Do Shave on October 24, 2007, 02:31:29 PM
Quote from: Tankie on October 24, 2007, 02:06:54 PM
I wouldnt be too worried about the imagrants, do the people in the south want to unite. Alot of people in the South see the North as a ecconomic drain on the British govenerment and would be asking the question on whether we want to take that over. I would be all up for a United Ireland but the ecconomics would have to be right.
Oh ai! - I'm all right Jack!
- Cheers! :'(
Whats the point in us all being broke. We have seen how badly Germany struggled with reunification. Unification is something that I would want to take place but not if it is going to set us all back years. I would also be looking for a 70% Yes vote from the north as a mininum because everyone would need to be on board for it to work.
It's a pity freestaters didn't feel the same way in 1921.
5times has hit the nail on the head. The agenda now ongoing is to go as softly as possible and to avoid having to get the mandate of the people at any stage. How anyone can be amazed by the selfishness of the southern electorate after everything that's gone on never ceases to mystify me - if Bertie Ahern went to the electorate with a manifesto of shooting everyone over 80 years of age and as a result the subsequent lack of pension expenditure would mean huge tax cuts for everyone else, he'd still poll 40% and pull together a coalition government. God knows half the 82 year olds would probably vote for him too, since you couldn't be voting for someone that was on the wrong side of the civil war after all. We've been an "I'm all right Jack" society ever since we fell for Jack Lynch's ridiculous promises in the late seventies, and we'll never be anything different.
If this issue is brought to the polls, there is not a hope of the southern electorate passing it, and every minister and potential minister down here knows it - cross border bodies will multiply like weeds in the coming decade. As for 2016 - never. 2060 maybe.
classic post lone shark ;D
however unity wont cost a fortune. the comparsion to e and w germany is constantly brought up but its apples and oranges. e germany was a basket case after decades of communists failure, the north is in far better shape!
Quote from: Lone Shark on October 24, 2007, 06:45:43 PM
5times has hit the nail on the head. The agenda now ongoing is to go as softly as possible and to avoid having to get the mandate of the people at any stage. How anyone can be amazed by the selfishness of the southern electorate after everything that's gone on never ceases to mystify me - if Bertie Ahern went to the electorate with a manifesto of shooting everyone over 80 years of age and as a result the subsequent lack of pension expenditure would mean huge tax cuts for everyone else, he'd still poll 40% and pull together a coalition government. God knows half the 82 year olds would probably vote for him too, since you couldn't be voting for someone that was on the wrong side of the civil war after all. We've been an "I'm all right Jack" society ever since we fell for Jack Lynch's ridiculous promises in the late seventies, and we'll never be anything different.
If this issue is brought to the polls, there is not a hope of the southern electorate passing it, and every minister and potential minister down here knows it - cross border bodies will multiply like weeds in the coming decade. As for 2016 - never. 2060 maybe.
Top class :)
Seriously at the end of the day it would be about sentiment not economics. Like I said who will make an economic arguement against? Even if there is one to be made. Not at least pretending to have Republican credentials, or paying lip service to them, in the South is electoral suicide - Michael McDowell dragged out his ancestors when challenged on his hatred of the Shinners during the Frank McDonnald affair, Garret Fitzgerald's parents fought in the GPO during the uprising etc.
As to whether that question will ever be put to the people...not a chance in my opinion. That would take the agreement of the assembly and both parliaments so I can't see it happening, as not one major politician down here has the character to even start that debate - we will be in cosy consensus territory for a long time more I feel. In fact there are no great politicians here anymore, we have a bunch of dwarves in kings' clothing.
I would worry more about the c40% of Catholics in the 6 counties who would imo vote against an United Ireland. Castle Catholics would have to be weaned over to the united Ireland cause for there to be a UI.
Alot of people forget how conservative we are as a nation and that alot of people are terrified of change.
Very easy for Northern Nationalists to turn a blind eye to this glaring fact and to blame the nefarious Mexicans for everything.
Quote from: oneillcup2007 on October 24, 2007, 01:55:14 PM
I think we need to be careful here - theres potential for the huge pro unionist vote in the South to default and vote that the free state is returned to the UK. Have any of you tried to reason with these people? I refer you to the denationalisation of irish rugby thread. Theres a lot of people ashamed to be Irish in and outside the GAA. Add to that the huge Northern vote of those whose only claim to being British is that their parents told them that their grandparents were - a significant if poorly thought out choice of opinion, then I could see Britain actiually reclaiming Ireland in a number of years. As they say all it talkes for no sense to prevail is for good people to do nothing...
There was plenty of reasoning done on that rugby thread, and the bulk of it by those who were arguing the case that a neutral song and flag were a very small and fair price to pay to accommodate those from the unionist tradition who are also represented by that team. Most of what I heard from the objectors was emotion and bitterness.
Your argument about unionists only claim to Britishness being through their grandparents is dumb, and could probably even be thrown at nationalists in the north regarding their Irishness (to show how really dumb it is!). Hardly the stuff of rational debate anyhow. I hope you have something better to bring to the unionists. Judging by the reaction to something as trivial as Ireland's Call, I have my doubts.
Personally, (although I'd have to weigh the issues) I probably would vote for a united Ireland, but it wouldn't be because I am afraid of being called un-Irish or a traitor. If emotion and name-calling is the extent of the pro-unification position, you can cross me off the yes column right now.
Some very good replies here.
My point about the immigrants was more to do with those who stay long term. Eventually if they have any sense they will become franchised and they may have a big bearing on what happens. It seems naive to me to assume that they will all go home someday or that they will stay but never vote.
I don't buy the idea of achieving a United Ireland by stealth, its not as if anyone could sneak it through. More like a United Ireland by a thousand cuts and judging by the way Paisley threatens to pull down Stormont every time anyone mentions the letters IRA there will a tense stand-off each time one of those thousand cuts is inflicted. However I do accept that the momentum, however slow, is in the direction of a 32 county Ireland.
Northerners needn't worry about the bone fides of Southerners Nationalistic sentiments. Southerners complain about everything political. That should not be read as a lack of interest or patriotism. Show any Southerner a map of this island and ask them whether it should be divided and you'll get your answer (with the exception of Dermot Mannion ::)).
the answer is chuck norris
Quote from: Canalman on October 24, 2007, 08:52:02 PM
I would worry more about the c40% of Catholics in the 6 counties who would imo vote against an United Ireland. Castle Catholics would have to be weaned over to the united Ireland cause for there to be a UI.
Alot of people forget how conservative we are as a nation and that alot of people are terrified of change.
Very easy for Northern Nationalists to turn a blind eye to this glaring fact and to blame the nefarious Mexicans for everything.
Britain would happily vote for it whether or not it would b decided by Westminster or by referendum would not make ay difference. It would be hard to tell how the South would go in a referendum, but my instincts tells me they would probably vote no as the economic conditions would never be quite right.
However, as Canalman says, it would be irrelevant anyway because even if demographics change and the North becomes 55% Catholic and there was a 5-10% immigrant population, when it came to a vote the majority would be a clear endorsement of the status quo. Immigrants would be happier with what they know and vote to keep the Union or more likely not vote at all. Almost all Protestants would vote to keep the Union, while many Catholics, even those who describe themselves as Nationalists, would fear any negative effects it might bring in the short term and would either abstain or vote against unity. I would love to see a united Ireland but IMO it will not happen this century.