A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.

[T Fearon]

Read the section on the poll in the GFA.Why doesn't it say that in the event of a poll resulting in majority support for a United Ireland,both governments will legislate for this with immediate effect?

[Harold Disgracey]

Was speaking with one of the negotiators of the GFA earlier, he stated that the DUP haven't a clue what they've let themselves in for. Apparently the two guarantors of the Agreement are the EU and the US, The Brits don't actually have sovereignty over the north, they are the de facto administrative authority and cannot exit the EU without the approval of the people of the north. Any changes to the agreement will more than likely require a referendum probably both sides of the border. Mike Nesbitt has copped on to this, Arlene not yet, publicly at least.

[armaghniac]

Was speaking with one of the negotiators of the GFA earlier, he stated that the DUP haven't a clue what they've let themselves in for. Apparently the two guarantors of the Agreement are the EU and the US, The Brits don't actually have sovereignty over the north, they are the de facto administrative authority and cannot exit the EU without the approval of the people of the north. Any changes to the agreement will more than likely require a referendum probably both sides of the border. Mike Nesbitt has copped on to this, Arlene not yet, publicly at least.

I'm not sure about Britain not having sovereignty over the North. But I imagine the deal could be that the Good Friday Agreement, which contains reference to the EU, cannot be changed without the agreement of the people of NI. Did Cameron realise this? If Clinton gets in, I can't see her being cooperative with the British doing their own thing. This all gets interesting, people weren't much bothered to turn out in the EU referendum proper, but a follow up vote might be different. For instance I'm sure there are people on this forum entitled to an overseas vote on the 15 year thing who didn't bother registering or voting.

Edit: The EU hasn't exactly been to the fore in pointing this out?

[Applesisapples]

My understanding of the GFA is that the North is set up in such a way that if we vote for a UI in the first instance the Irish and British Govts reverse roles. Stormont stays until such times as everyone can agree to a change.

[muppet]

Did a quick search for 'EU' (includes Europe, European etc.) references in the GFA:

Safeguards
5. There will be safeguards to ensure that all sections of the community can participate and work together successfully in the operation of these institutions and that all sections of the community are protected, including:
(b) the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) and any Bill of Rights for Northern Ireland supplementing it, which neither the Assembly nor public bodies can infringe, together with a Human Rights Commission;

Relations with other institutions
31. Terms will be agreed between appropriate Assembly representatives and the Government of the United Kingdom to ensure effective co-ordination and input by Ministers to national policy-making, including on EU issues.

NORTH/SOUTH MINISTERIAL COUNCIL
3. The Council to meet in different formats:
(iii) in an appropriate format to consider institutional or cross-sectoral matters (including in relation to the EU) and to resolve disagreement.
17. The Council to consider the European Union dimension of relevant matters, including the implementation of EU policies and programmes and proposals under consideration in the EU framework. Arrangements to be made to ensure that the views of the Council are taken into account and represented appropriately at relevant EU meetings.


It also states this:

CONSTITUTIONAL ISSUES
1. The participants endorse the commitment made by the British and Irish Governments that, in a new British-Irish Agreement replacing the Anglo-Irish Agreement, they will:
(i) recognise the legitimacy of whatever choice is freely exercised by a majority of the people of Northern Ireland with regard to its status, whether they prefer to continue to support the Union with Great Britain or a sovereign united Ireland;

It looks like what Harold says above is arguable, based on the line finishing 'with regard to its status'. But the 'choice' mentioned is qualified by what follows the word 'whether', so I don't see it unfortunately.

However, given the recent announcements from the Dáil, something is going on. To call a border poll and lose it would set the cause back a long time, so they would need to be sure of a victory (unlike say David Cameron). It could just be leverage.

[heganboy]

Apparently the two guarantors of the Agreement are the EU and the US, The Brits don't actually have sovereignty over the north, they are the de facto administrative authority and cannot exit the EU without the approval of the people of the north.

Harold,
do you have any more info about this statement? It doesn't make sense to me, I may be being obtuse

[Harold Disgracey]

That was typed after a few scoops last night so mightn't make total sense! Basically as the south removed articles 2 & 3 the Brits are now only in charge for as long as the population of the north want them to be. Any change to the status of the north, such as Brexit, can only be decided by people of the north and if the Brits want to unilaterally make changes to the GFA, a referendum will have to be held to approve any new agreement, on both sides of the border.

Make sense?

[armaghniac]

I think the issue is Heganboy's point in post #655

3. Wishing to develop still further the unique relationship between their peoples and the close co-operation between their countries as friendly neighbours and as partners in the European Union;


means that if the British are not be partners in the EU then they are reneging on the agreement and would have to renegotiate and have another referendum.

Perhaps the wording will be
Wishing to develop still further the unique relationship between their peoples and the close co-operation between their countries as friendly neighbours, notwithstanding which Britain may basically do what it likes regardless.

[omaghjoe]

This is all very interesting, however if it right then what I want to know is if Britain enacts article 50, would it be challenged in the courts with these bits from the GFA (and presumably something that the Scots have too)?

If this is the case then Who brings the challenge? Is it the US?EU as guarantors, the Dublin government, SF/SDLP/UU, or even.... the NI Office?

What court is it brought to? Will it ultimately end up in the European Court?

Could Britian's lack of constitution be its undoing or could we actually see the decision being made by the Queen? 

[T Fearon]

Did the GFA not confirm N Ireland remains part of the UK unless a majority agrees otherwise? Surely that means that the UK government has undisputed sovereignty over the territory,and can take it out of Europe therefore if it so desires

[armaghniac]

Did the GFA not confirm N Ireland remains part of the UK unless a majority agrees otherwise? Surely that means that the UK government has undisputed sovereignty over the territory,and can take it out of Europe therefore if it so desires

This is true, the question is whether it has to formally renege on the GFA to do. Theresa May wanted to leave the Euro Human Rights thing, but didn't in the end as this would have overturned the GFA.

While politicians have been flying some kites in the relation to a UI poll, nobody has directly called on Britain to respect the GFA, although the British are carefully trying to imply that there is isn't a problem.

Where are the #SavetheGFA tweets and the Facebook campaigns, the demonstrations or petitions. It seems to be that respect the GFA is something a lot of people could  support, but people are sleepwalking into this.

[Hereiam]

Armagh is it not the job of our politicians  to highlight this to the public and then we all get angry about it, as yet not a peep from the shinners or the stoops.

[armaghniac]

Armagh is it not the job of our politicians  to highlight this to the public and then we all get angry about it, as yet not a peep from the shinners or the stoops.

Absolutely. I cannot think of topic better suited to the SDLP, that sentence about partners in the EU in the GFA was probably directly proposed by John Hume. Why is everyone so quiet?

[illdecide]

Armagh is it not the job of our politicians  to highlight this to the public and then we all get angry about it, as yet not a peep from the shinners or the stoops.

Absolutely. I cannot think of topic better suited to the SDLP, that sentence about partners in the EU in the GFA was probably directly proposed by John Hume. Why is everyone so quiet?

They have prob realised that eventually they'll loose out in money somewhere along the line because you can bet your ass if there was an increase in it for the Politicians then you'd hear about it...

[general_lee]

70% on a Belfast Telegraph poll voted in favour of a United ireland. I think a lot of the "pragmatic" unionists are reconsidering unity. Obviously you can't read too much into an online poll; but found it odd on a traditionally unionist paper