A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.

[armaghniac]

Some data.


You can see how Scotland had a chance, whereas Wales is a complete basket case.
Not sure about NI, for instance fuel duty seems higher than Wales. With some folks driving on red, and some on white that was red at one time, and most everyone filling up at the border given the fuel was always a few pence cheaper in unoccupied Ireland.

[armaghniac]

Interesting map of NI demographic changes 1971-2011 coded by green/blue.
It is notable how Belfast has turned green, while the commuter towns around Belfast have expanded, most of these are blue, but Crumlin is notably green.

https://www.thedetail.tv/mapfiles/index.html

It would be interesting to plot the map of GAA clubs on this.

[Avondhu star]

If there ever is a UI it will be a political decision between the uk and the ROI, which no doubt will involve the Uk and possibly the EU underwriting the economy to a point that it can stand alone, this will have long term benefits and savings for the UK. I have not seen a serious independent report on the economic case for a UI. All these calls for a poll at the moment are premature as a majority of nationalists remain unconvinced. The whining belligerent speech by Martina Anderson in the European Parliament will achieve nothing except confirming that she is a fool.

The problem is that SF can call for a border poll, but they have zero capacity to put forward an economic model for unification that people can believe in. There certainly is a case for the UK giving a good deal, but I would be worried that any discussion will be concerned with not giving Scotland a good deal, or a precedent for one, rather than behaving reasonably and responsibly in relation to NI.

Sinn Feins economic model relies on a twin approach,
1. Sure why cant Britain pay.
2. Some one else can pay. This is usually meaning " the rich" (i.e. ordinary working  people with a job) but definitely not those dole scroungers

[Rossfan]

The "someone else" means people who don't vote SF

[armaghniac]

The "someone else" means people who don't vote SF

Which is, of course, not a strong encourage to those people to change their vote.

[Rois]

The "someone else" means people who don't vote SF

Which is, of course, not a strong encourage to those people to change their vote.

100% right.

I can't vote SF because I don't agree with their economic policies.

[HiMucker]

If there ever is a UI it will be a political decision between the uk and the ROI, which no doubt will involve the Uk and possibly the EU underwriting the economy to a point that it can stand alone, this will have long term benefits and savings for the UK. I have not seen a serious independent report on the economic case for a UI. All these calls for a poll at the moment are premature as a majority of nationalists remain unconvinced. The whining belligerent speech by Martina Anderson in the European Parliament will achieve nothing except confirming that she is a fool.

The problem is that SF can call for a border poll, but they have zero capacity to put forward an economic model for unification that people can believe in. There certainly is a case for the UK giving a good deal, but I would be worried that any discussion will be concerned with not giving Scotland a good deal, or a precedent for one, rather than behaving reasonably and responsibly in relation to NI.

Sinn Feins economic model relies on a twin approach,
1. Sure why cant Britain pay.
2. Some one else can pay. This is usually meaning " the rich" (i.e. ordinary working  people with a job) but definitely not those dole scroungers

Ah the aul dole scrounger line.  You do realise that the loss of revenue to fraudulent benefit claims is minuscule compared to tax evasion at the other end of the scale?  You just won't see many tabloid articles or demeaning channel 4 shows about it.  And to go further it is a drop in an infinite ocean compared to tax avoidance by MNCs.

[T Fearon]

I see Bertie Aherne today appealed for an end to calls for a Border referendum and indeed explained that the GFA envisaged such a poll only when there was certainty that a United Ireland  was the overwhelming preference  of both unionists and nationalists. So there you go it's not 50% plus one,but requires both a unionist and nationalist majority in favour. In other words it's never going to happen

[seafoid]

I see Bertie Aherne today appealed for an end to calls for a Border referendum and indeed explained that the GFA envisaged such a poll only when there was certainty that a United Ireland  was the overwhelming preference  of both unionists and nationalists. So there you go it's not 50% plus one,but requires both a unionist and nationalist majority in favour. In other words it's never going to happen

Depends how much a hard Brexit costs .

[T Fearon]

If it was affordable and any free state party wanted it,unionists would never agree to a UI.Economics doesn't come into it.The clear economic benefits of belonging to the UK never persuaded Northern Nationalists to abandon nationalism

[Rossfan]

I see Bertie Aherne today appealed for an end to calls for a Border referendum and indeed explained that the GFA envisaged such a poll only when there was certainty that a United Ireland  was the overwhelming preference  of both unionists and nationalists. So there you go it's not 50% plus one,but requires both a unionist and nationalist majority in favour. In other words it's never going to happen

What's written in the GFA?
Anyone in favour of a UI are by definition NOT Unionists.

[armaghniac]

What's written in the GFA?

50%+1, even if that 1 is Olly, it still counts.

[T Fearon]

Read the GFA.It states that both governments (if they even allow a referendum) will be bound to consider the result and act in a way they think is best.Thats a far cry from any commitment to implement a UI.In any event it is plain that both governments won't allow a referendum any time soon,and as Bertie says,not until it's plain that a UI would be a mutually agreed outcome,which is not going to happen

[dec]

From the Good Friday Agreement

The two Governments:
affirm that, if in the future, the people of the island of Ireland exercise
their right of self-determination on the basis set out in sections (i) and (ii)
above to bring about a united Ireland, it will be a binding obligation on
both Governments to introduce and support in their respective Parliaments
legislation to give effect to that wish

[JPGJOHNNYG]

I see Bertie Aherne today appealed for an end to calls for a Border referendum and indeed explained that the GFA envisaged such a poll only when there was certainty that a United Ireland  was the overwhelming preference  of both unionists and nationalists. So there you go it's not 50% plus one,but requires both a unionist and nationalist majority in favour. In other words it's never going to happen

Bertie Ahern can say what he wants but if there was a majority supporting a United Ireland being blocked by some veto then expect some serious trouble. Cant imagine either government would like to be responsible for that.