Russia invades Ukraine Feb 2022

[theskull1]

The full Cambridge Union speech

JEFFREY SACHS

Jeffrey D. Sachs is University Professor and Director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University, where he directed the Earth Institute from 2002 until 2016.

He is also President of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network, Co-Chair of the Council of Engineers for the Energy Transition, Commissioner of the UN Broadband Commission for Development, academician of the Pontifical Academy of Social Sciences at the Vatican, and Tan Sri Jeffrey Cheah Honorary Distinguished Professor at Sunway University.

He has been Special Advisor to three United Nations Secretaries-General, and currently serves as an SDG Advocate under Secretary General António Guterres.

He spent over twenty years as a professor at Harvard University, where he received his B.A., M.A., and Ph.D. degrees. Sachs has received 42 honorary doctorates, and his recent awards include the 2022 Tang Prize in Sustainable Development, the Legion of Honor by decree of the President of the Republic of France, and the Order of the Cross from the President of Estonia.

His most recent books are The Ages of Globalization: Geography, Technology, and Institutions (2020) and Ethics in Action for Sustainable Development (2022).

[Banks of the Bann]

Ad nauseam, ad infinitum.

Have you read the Grand Chessboard yet Skull?

Spoiler: It doesn't say what Jeffrey says it says

Question EVERYTHING! *

*unless it agrees with your ideology, in which case question NOTHING.

[Main Street]

The full Cambridge Union speech

JEFFREY SACHS

Jeffrey D. Sachs is University Professor and Director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University, where he directed the Earth Institute from 2002 until 2016.

He is also President of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network, Co-Chair of the Council of Engineers for the Energy Transition, Commissioner of the UN Broadband Commission for Development, academician of the Pontifical Academy of Social Sciences at the Vatican, and Tan Sri Jeffrey Cheah Honorary Distinguished Professor at Sunway University.

He has been Special Advisor to three United Nations Secretaries-General, and currently serves as an SDG Advocate under Secretary General António Guterres.

He spent over twenty years as a professor at Harvard University, where he received his B.A., M.A., and Ph.D. degrees. Sachs has received 42 honorary doctorates, and his recent awards include the 2022 Tang Prize in Sustainable Development, the Legion of Honor by decree of the President of the Republic of France, and the Order of the Cross from the President of Estonia.

His most recent books are The Ages of Globalization: Geography, Technology, and Institutions (2020) and Ethics in Action for Sustainable Development (2022).

The usual preamble when presenting Kremlin filth is to apply academic lipstick by the gallon onto the pig, in order to add some gravitas backing up the Kremlin spiel. With all his acclaimed credentials Jeffrey was totally wrong about the effects (Fear mighty Russia!!) of Sweden and Finland joining NATO. Not only that, but Jeffrey is totally blind to the fact that Russia has been the historical blatant imperialist aggressor since 1918 and that Russia has already lost this war.
In the past 12 months Russia has gained a minuscule 0.1% of Ukraine land, and that's with throwing everything including the kitchen sink  (but not the looted toilets) at the Ukraine defenders

If Russia's goals for starting this war were about seizing the south and the Donbas, it could have done that. But they wanted Ukraine wiped off the map and were arrogant enough to think they could.
Ukraine, after almost 3 years not only still stands but is inflicting very high casualties to the RU army. Then by Russia's own definition and choice to not go with realistic war aims, they have failed.Russia's losses (inc economical) are too massive and the results so massively short of their war aims for it to wind up being anything but a Strategic Defeat for RU.

Russia has Tactical Victory (destroying some villages+ gaining terrain) but a Strategic Defeat because it failed at just about everything else it was trying to achieve.And on the Ukraine side we have Tactical Defeat because they lost terrain.
Real warfare is not like in Hollywood where the "victory" magically happens due to triumphing in some climactic battle.Ukraine does not have to fight and win some climactic battle to get their territory back. They have to have the will to keep fighting and the allies have to have the will to keep supplying them.

"It is not those who can inflict the most but those who can endure the most who will conquer." Terence Macswiney, Principles of Freedom.



Russia's economy is predicted to go tits up sometime after mid 2025, real inflation is opined to be well over 20%  interest rates are now 21%, the unsustainable mortgage subsidies have been lifted, leading to a destructive property bubble.
The booming war economy with 40% of the budget  is showing sign of faltering, massive production for war related kit which returns no income as it just gets blown up.

There's panic in the Kremlin war room.

[armaghniac]

The international Oryz website estimates that Russia has lost 10732 armoured vehicles. This is from satellite photos etc and underestimates the full loses.
New production is less than half the loss rate, so they have to pull increasingly rusty kit out of storage, but the time taken to refurbish this is increasing.
I think Russia has a big push on now, before the US election. This is both to give the impression of the Ukrainian situation being hopeless and to have maximum ground if some sort of talks emerge. They might have the objective of capturing the rest of the Donetsk Oblast. They can't capture Ukraine now, they will go to a certain point, get some sort of stalemate and then try and rebuild their capacity.
The West just needs not to lose interest and keep helping, the US has a load of ancient kit from the Gulf War which will be scrapped anyway and 10% of Western military production would stymie Putin.

[Rossfan]

If tr**p cuts assistance to Ukraine are we possibly looking at another 8m refugees as Russia will likely overrun more of East Ukraine?

[Banks of the Bann]

If tr**p cuts assistance to Ukraine are we possibly looking at another 8m refugees as Russia will likely overrun more of East Ukraine?

More likely to use the threat of cutting assistance to force Ukraine into some sort of agreement. Anything that freezes the conflict on current lines is pretty much just a victory for Russia. Security guarantees for Ukraine as part of any settlement will be just as worthless as they have been in the past, we'll see the whole thing kick off again in 4-5 years.

[Armagh18]

Biden approves Ukraine using US long range weapons to attack Russia. Owl fella trying to go out with a bang...

[Banks of the Bann]

Biden approves Ukraine using US long range weapons to attack Russia. Owl fella trying to go out with a bang...

For use within the Kursk region only apparently.  Biden still a coward just like that p***k Scholz.

[Milltown Row2]

Guy on the radio today saying that if Russia continues it will win the war.

Making inroads into Ukrainian territory at the minute, driving them back won't be done with letting off these rockets

Settlement and lost land looks like the best bet for them. So many lives lost

[Rossfan]

And then ......Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan,....the various Stans...

[LC]

Biden approves Ukraine using US long range weapons to attack Russia. Owl fella trying to go out with a bang...

More looking to put the 2 fingers up to Trump to see if he will do a 360 in 2 months time when he takes over.

[Armagh18]

Biden approves Ukraine using US long range weapons to attack Russia. Owl fella trying to go out with a bang...

More looking to put the 2 fingers up to Trump to see if he will do a 360 in 2 months time when he takes over.

Of course he will. And then Trump can claim credit for de-escalation.

[Milltown Row2]

Trump will take credit if snows on Xmas day, he's a genius 

[armaghniac]

Guy on the radio today saying that if Russia continues it will win the war.

Making inroads into Ukrainian territory at the minute, driving them back won't be done with letting off these rockets

"If" Russia continues, but having 1500 casualties per day and losing 50 armoured vehicles means continuing is a bit of a challenge. Even at the present accelerated pace Russia will not occupy all of Ukraine until 2050.

[Milltown Row2]

Guy on the radio today saying that if Russia continues it will win the war.

Making inroads into Ukrainian territory at the minute, driving them back won't be done with letting off these rockets

"If" Russia continues, but having 1500 casualties per day and losing 50 armoured vehicles means continuing is a bit of a challenge. Even at the present accelerated pace Russia will not occupy all of Ukraine until 2050.

This was from someone who's better placed than you or I