Is the end of the Union in sight? (It may well be but then again…)

[Evil Genius]

I can't see a UI in those figures.

That's because there isn't one.

Nor is there anything on the horizon likely to alter that.

I was tempted therefore to call for the thread to be closed, except that that would deny "the usual suspects" their opportunity to point out where your figures and analysis are incorrect.

And we wouldn't want to do that, would we? 

[Evil Genius]

Why do unionists want to be part of the UK??  I never understand it.

It appears to me they have no real culture--other than wading in from another land--being given land and then pretending the world ends at an invisible border. Therefore this part of the island is rendered almost identity-less--it must leave unionists feeling weird, like they are just camping out in a place that isnt really theirs. I mean all the towns names --like Belfast--an anglasised version of "mouth of the river Farset" --Derry --Doire --meaning "oak grove." It must leave you feeling like your 'holding what you have' for dear life --wee corners of Belfast and other towns--simply custodians for now, not forever.

Sure nearly all middle class protestants go to university in England and Scotland--many never return--they feel more at home over there--surely this trend will affect voting patterns negatively for unionists. Sure they'll still have the "yeeeeeeooooooooo" brigade who'll always vote for anyone holding a union jack but it's bound to affect things.

I mind years ago i went to USA for a soccer trip and me and this fella from east belfast were staying in a family home of the host team--they had loads of people over at the house to meet the "irish guys" during the 2 weeks and the clown i was with tired himself out telling everyone "no we're not the irish guys, we're not irish, we're nothern irish" everyone was like "yeah, ok" We even played a game and this fella kicked someone and the USA kid was sayin "you irish b**tard" and the boy said "i'm not irish i'm northern irish"!!!! He'd a permanant confused frown on his face, it was a laugh. They also welcomed us with a tricolour on the wall in our bedroom--the wee man near had a breakdown! HE'd never been outta east belfast and probably didnt even know that if you keep driving you'll get to dublin (to be fair he probably had never heard of lisburn, never mind longford etc)

If ever I run out of reasons for wanting NI to remain in the UK, I can always refer back to this ignorant, insulting and frankly bigoted rant.

Thank You. 

[Evil Genius]

Holy Feck! Why oh Why does this have to come down to a base sum? The odds of Larne, Carrick, Lisburn, East Belfast etc etc accepting a crude sum is NIL! We will have partition re-drawn to ensure that Unionism survives .. at the best / worst case we will have a 'Northern Ireland' the size of Jersey based in south-east Antrim and North Down - this is a nonsense to believe that the 32 is on the cards. That lesson was learnt in 1922.

Have you understood anything  from the figures and analysis which Lar Naparka has supplied in this thread?

Unionism does not need a re-drawing of Partition in order to survive.

After decades during which NI's very existence was threatened on a number of fronts, the only threat to our place in the Union now lies in a majority vote for a UI by the NI electorate.

And there is no sign anywhere of that beiong realised, either imminently, or in the foreseeable future.

Of course, I appreciate that that must be an uncomfortable truth for Republicans to accept, but concocting unrealistic theories such as yours (above) will not help you.

I'd advise you just get used to it...

[Evil Genius]

Holy Feck! Why oh Why does this have to come down to a base sum? The odds of Larne, Carrick, Lisburn, East Belfast etc etc accepting a crude sum is NIL! We will have partition re-drawn to ensure that Unionism survives .. at the best / worst case we will have a 'Northern Ireland' the size of Jersey based in south-east Antrim and North Down - this is a nonsense to believe that the 32 is on the cards. That lesson was learnt in 1922.

the point being missed by most is that a reunification will be pushed not by the Irish, but by the british.
the biggest supporters of a reunification wil lbe Irish republicans and their previous enemies - the British gov - who want to get rid of the millstone of the north from their hands.
The population swing will happen. However, will the brit gov engage in their infamous 'dirty tricks' to manipulate things again?
ie taking jobs back to blighty, God knows what else they can and would do - as they were liable to do anything in the past (including killing ) to maintain the status quo !
Anything they can think of to halp quicken the referendum - they will do it.
I am sure the 'lost voters' the apathetic nationalists and those that have moved south, will head back up the road again for such a referendum.
then it will be up to the southern voters and the Irish Gov to see what changes they can and will make to integrate and thus appease those looking to maintain their same benefits/health system etc.

So to summarise: You can't rely on Republicanism (by ballot or bullet) to deliver a UI. Nor can you rely on the Unionists to concede or acquiesce. And you certainly can't depend on those treacherous b a s t ards in the Free State to "help you over the line", either.

Therefore your "cunning plan" for a United Ireland essentially boils down to waiting for the Brits  to deliver. And not only that, but they will also provide a nice wee dowry, to sweeten the deal.

Tell me, Lynchbhoy, have you ever thought of writing a letter to Santa? 

[Evil Genius]

Come on EG, i enjoy your posts to get a balanced rounded view from the 'other side' but are you seriously saying discrimination by the establishment against nationalists was over after 1980!

No.

My point was that any Nationalist born in 1980 is not likely to be politically aware until the mid 90's, and ineilgible to vote before 1998, by which time institutional discrimination had been all but eradicated, and "informal" discrimination was greatly reduced.

Which for me partly* explains why, even with the "Catholic" demographics outstripping their "Prod" equivalents during the 1980's and 90's, we have not seen a corresponding outstripping of the Unionist share of the vote by Nationalism during the 2000's (i.e. when those RC's were entitled to vote).


* - There are other reasons too, of course, imo primarily economic.

[Evil Genius]

When Scotland pull the plug and go for full independence, how secure with NI be within the Union, especially when most NI Unionists are of Scottish extraction in the first place.

Interesting couple of decades ahead for those around to see it.

There is no more sign of a majority in Scotland opting for independence than there is for a majority in NI opting for a UI.

In fact, all the evidence of successive elections proves that there is even less appetite for Independence in Scotland, than for Unity in NI.

P.S. Can somebody explain to me why Republicans appear so insistent about their right to vote etc, at the same time as being so capable of ignoring the results whenever a vote actually does take place? 

[Hardy]

50% of Scotland's economy is public sector so I can't see them going for full independence any time soon unless the English boot them out.
Mind you at some stage the English will get fed up subsidising the rest of Great Britain plus the North and may pull the plug on the "United Kingdom" and set up their own independent State. :

Good point. If the school of thought that the English (the overwhelming constituent nationality of the UK) want rid of the North is correct, what's to stop THEM seceding from the Union, especially under a Conservative government, who would doubtless be happy getting rid of the troublesome, non-Tory-voting Scots in the process, now that the oil is about to stop flowing? (What about the Welsh? Well, exactly.)

[ONeill]

The first thing we need to do in the UI is to educate themuns.

Please, no more 90's and 80's. That's a horrible use of the apostrophe.

[HiMucker]

Come on EG, i enjoy your posts to get a balanced rounded view from the 'other side' but are you seriously saying discrimination by the establishment against nationalists was over after 1980!

No.

My point was that any Nationalist born in 1980 is not likely to be politically aware until the mid 90's, and ineilgible to vote before 1998, by which time institutional discrimination had been all but eradicated, and "informal" discrimination was greatly reduced.

Which for me partly* explains why, even with the "Catholic" demographics outstripping their "Prod" equivalents during the 1980's and 90's, we have not seen a corresponding outstripping of the Unionist share of the vote by Nationalism during the 2000's (i.e. when those RC's were entitled to vote).


* - There are other reasons too, of course, imo primarily economic.

I will accept that.  Now i will go back to playing my PS3 on my 42 inch TV in my british opressed living room 

[Evil Genius]

50% of Scotland's economy is public sector so I can't see them going for full independence any time soon unless the English boot them out.

Indeed. And that of Wales is even greater (approaching NI levels, as it happens).

Mind you at some stage the English will get fed up subsidising the rest of Great Britain plus the North and may pull the plug on the "United Kingdom" and set up their own independent State. :

The "English" have been pretty much subsidising the rest of the UK ever since its (UK) foundation in 1707.

Yet there is no sign, then or now, of any significant English Nationalist movement. On the contrary, when given the opportunity eg for regional councils in England, the English voted decisively to reject these.

To be quite honest, the only significant sign of discontent at economic imbalance comes from London and the South East, who grumble more about having to subsidise 25 million (unproductive) English people in the Midlands and North than they do about 10 million (unproductive) Scots/Welsh/NI.

But even then these complaints amount to nothing very much.

No, if you wish to provoke Nationalistic indignation in England about money down the drain etc, you only have to murmur the word "Europe", for the sparks to fly!

[Evil Genius]

50% of Scotland's economy is public sector so I can't see them going for full independence any time soon unless the English boot them out.
Mind you at some stage the English will get fed up subsidising the rest of Great Britain plus the North and may pull the plug on the "United Kingdom" and set up their own independent State. :

Good point. If the school of thought that the English (the overwhelming constituent nationality of the UK) want rid of the North is correct, what's to stop THEM seceding from the Union, especially under a Conservative government, who would doubtless be happy getting rid of the troublesome, non-Tory-voting Scots in the process, now that the oil is about to stop flowing? (What about the Welsh? Well, exactly.)

Except that since the bombs stopped going off in London and squaddies stopped dying in Londonderry etc, NI has ceased to play any significant part in English thinking.

That is, I guess that if you asked the average English person about NI, they would mumble something about "giving it back etc", but if you then pointed out that that would be contrary to the GFA etc, then they would be likely to reply "Oh, well, I suppose that that's that, then" (or somesuch).

In other words, NI barely figures on the political radar much more highly than eg Shetland, Gibraltar or the Falklands. Or Wales 

And as regards the English political establishment  (as opposed to the English electorate), the notion of divesting the UK of NI would be completely contrary in principle to their desire to keep Scotland and Wales within the UK (as well as illegal).

Besides, most of the English political establishment is Scottish, anyway!

[Gold]

Is that flag not redundant?

Northern where? How come Robinson cant bring himself to say IRELAND and says ALLEN/ALIN instead?

I wonder does he call Scotland, Scotlin or Iceland, Icelin

[ONeill]

It's happening already. David Jeffrey, the Linfield supremo, said last week that Linfield was one of the best run clubs on the Island of Ireland. The drip drip is working.

[bennydorano]

England has been content to subsidise the rest of the UK as long as military uniforms continued to be filled  down through the years & strategic defence positions/locations were occupied by friends and not foes.

[armaghniac]

Just watching Tom Elliot on TV now. With the Union in the hands of men of his calibre there has to be hope for the future.