The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)

Started by muppet, September 28, 2008, 11:36:36 PM

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armaghniac

QuotePresumably as a device to "make " Europe give us a bit of leeway on interest rates or repayment time spans

If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

muppet

Quote from: Rossfan on February 29, 2012, 10:52:39 AM
Presumably as a device to "make " Europe give us a bit of leeway on interest rates or repayment time spans  ???

That would actually be something.

I suspect the leadership in both FG and Labour know the novices on the backbenchers are seriously short of cohones. Look at Penrose. Look at Vaticanists. That is probably the only reason for the vote.

Regardless this referendum will expose a few harsh truths:

* Firstly, we have no sovereignty since the night of the Bank Guarantee.
* Secondly, all parties serious about ever being in power will campaign for a yes vote. SF's face a Hobson's Choice, naked populism no matter how daft, or face reality and risk losing lots of newfound protest votes.

Ireland being Ireland the debate will be strictly limited to a choice of Burn the bondholders (who are long gone) versus We have no choice (without ever explaining fully why because that would be too embarrassing). There will be about as much analysis as there was for the Lisbon Treaty 1, Lisbon Treaty 2, Bank Guarantee, Anglo Nationalisation, Corrib Gas Giveaway,  eVoting, Bank Regulation, etc, etc, amen.
MWWSI 2017

CiKe

http://www.johnmauldin.com/images/uploads/pdf/mwo022712.pdf

This is a link to "A Primer on the Euro Breakup". By looking at historical precedent they seem to make leaving the Euro seem not such a disastrous choice, however acknowledge that in this instance starting conditions are considerably worse and that you are effectively combining a stereotypical "emerging markets crisis" with a currency breakup.

My own thoughts for some time have been that may be better to bite the bullet and get the worst of it over with rather than have 10 yrs of stagnation with no light at the end of the tunnel. That said I have been on the outside for a while and am looking back in and realistically won't be returning to Ireland any time soon if at all.

Pangurban

Referendum my arse, if they dont get the right result to legitimise their lunacy, they will keep coming back until they do. The will of the people counts for nothing in our European democracy.

armaghniac

QuoteReferendum my arse, if they dont get the right result to legitimise their lunacy, they will keep coming back until they do. The will of the people counts for nothing in our European democracy.

This kind of half baked comment will be typical of the campaign. One party loses an election, they don't go off and shoot themselves (perhaps this is a pity), but they come back again at the next election and try and convince people to change their mind. That's how democracy works.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

Pangurban

Come back and debate when you have learned the difference between referenda and elections

johnneycool

Quote from: muppet on February 29, 2012, 04:23:17 PM
[
Ireland being Ireland the debate will be strictly limited to a choice of Burn the bondholders (who are long gone) versus We have no choice (without ever explaining fully why because that would be too embarrassing). There will be about as much analysis as there was for the Lisbon Treaty 1, Lisbon Treaty 2, Bank Guarantee, Anglo Nationalisation, Corrib Gas Giveaway,  eVoting, Bank Regulation, etc, etc, amen.

Have the bondholders got their money at this stage?

If they have then indeed the horse has bolted and cap in hand to the European central bank/IMF/Troica (or whatever they are called) it is then!

The Bondholders should only have gotten their money (if that was agreed by Cowan and Lenihan) when Ireland could afford to give it to them, not borrow money at extortionate rates to pay the hoors right away!

Rossfan

Quote from: Pangurban on February 29, 2012, 08:07:44 PM
Referendum my arse, if they dont get the right result to legitimise their lunacy, they will keep coming back until they do. The will of the people counts for nothing in our European democracy.

So what's your well thought out solution/alternative that will get us out of the €150 Bn mess we've been landed in?
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

seafoid

Quote from: johnneycool on March 02, 2012, 09:35:37 AM
Quote from: muppet on February 29, 2012, 04:23:17 PM
[
Ireland being Ireland the debate will be strictly limited to a choice of Burn the bondholders (who are long gone) versus We have no choice (without ever explaining fully why because that would be too embarrassing). There will be about as much analysis as there was for the Lisbon Treaty 1, Lisbon Treaty 2, Bank Guarantee, Anglo Nationalisation, Corrib Gas Giveaway,  eVoting, Bank Regulation, etc, etc, amen.

Have the bondholders got their money at this stage?

If they have then indeed the horse has bolted and cap in hand to the European central bank/IMF/Troica (or whatever they are called) it is then!

The Bondholders should only have gotten their money (if that was agreed by Cowan and Lenihan) when Ireland could afford to give it to them, not borrow money at extortionate rates to pay the hoors right away!

The only issue outstanding is the loan of 31bn that was taken out to pay off the bondholders in Anglo and INBS.
The bondholders got away but the ECB is owed this money. 
Ireland is probably going to have to suck on it.  It's very hard to be assertive and bolshy with a budget deficit at 9% of GDP.
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

muppet

Quote from: johnneycool on March 02, 2012, 09:35:37 AM
Quote from: muppet on February 29, 2012, 04:23:17 PM
[
Ireland being Ireland the debate will be strictly limited to a choice of Burn the bondholders (who are long gone) versus We have no choice (without ever explaining fully why because that would be too embarrassing). There will be about as much analysis as there was for the Lisbon Treaty 1, Lisbon Treaty 2, Bank Guarantee, Anglo Nationalisation, Corrib Gas Giveaway,  eVoting, Bank Regulation, etc, etc, amen.

Have the bondholders got their money at this stage?

If they have then indeed the horse has bolted and cap in hand to the European central bank/IMF/Troica (or whatever they are called) it is then!

The Bondholders should only have gotten their money (if that was agreed by Cowan and Lenihan) when Ireland could afford to give it to them, not borrow money at extortionate rates to pay the hoors right away!

The bondholders are long gone. But get this, those bondholders who according to the ECB and Lenny had to have 100% of their debts guaranteed......sold at a discount to Hedge Funds. That discount (I've heard figures of 30% or more) should have gone to the taxpayer but Lenihan, Cowen and whatever idiots were advising them shirked playing hardball and went for their default spoof position.

Everything since then is merely musical deck chairs.
MWWSI 2017


thejuice

I was saying a while back that all we have to do is hold fire and don't commit to anything and wait for the Greeks pull the whole thing down.

Maybe we can get the referendum postponed if need be due to the weather or the man in charge forgot the keys to the house where the ballot papers are.

;)
It won't be the next manager but the one after that Meath will become competitive again - MO'D 2016

muppet

Quote from: thejuice on March 05, 2012, 04:42:55 PM
I was saying a while back that all we have to do is hold fire and don't commit to anything and wait for the Greeks pull the whole thing down.

Maybe we can get the referendum postponed if need be due to the weather or the man in charge forgot the keys to the house where the ballot papers are.

;)

We might run out of toner!
MWWSI 2017

thejuice

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9124569/European-recovery-rocked-by-poor-economic-data-in-Spain-and-Italy.html

Looks like Spain isn't playing ball. They have decided to reduce the austerity measures to prevent a debt spiral without the approval of Brussels.

The PP government are blaming the Basques and Catalans for it which is par de course for them but it's completely wrong.

It won't be the next manager but the one after that Meath will become competitive again - MO'D 2016

johnneycool

Quote from: muppet on September 29, 2008, 06:45:27 PM
The House of Representatives votes NO!!  :o

If the markets were rough today wait till tomorrow.  ???

DOW Jones down 6% or 690 points. Unbelievable.

Markets may not open tomorrow. Time for a pint.

And Ireland may need another bail out according to one of these pariah ratings agencies!

Who funds those hoors and how independent are they from their bed buddies in the financial or political world?