China Coronavirus

[armaghniac]

BCG is an interesting one (although Im sure they are exhausting every possible link). I Would like to see a chart of countries that used this as a vacine for TB.

This is from a paper published but not yet reviewed by people in the New York Institute of Technology. Note the scale on the left is log and the data was from March.
This paper seems to be a predecessor to the people in Texas discussed in the Irish newspapers.
Put it this way, if my GP was offering a BCG booster I'd be down there in a shot.

[Gmac]

BCG is an interesting one (although Im sure they are exhausting every possible link). I Would like to see a chart of countries that used this as a vacine for TB.

This is from a paper published but not yet reviewed by people in the New York Institute of Technology. Note the scale on the left is log and the data was from March.
This paper seems to be a predecessor to the people in Texas discussed in the Irish newspapers.
Put it this way, if my GP was offering a BCG booster I'd be down there in a shot.

medcram a doctor who does a video every couple of days on YouTube was talking about this 2 weeks ago

[APM]

BCG is an interesting one (although Im sure they are exhausting every possible link). I Would like to see a chart of countries that used this as a vacine for TB.

This is from a paper published but not yet reviewed by people in the New York Institute of Technology. Note the scale on the left is log and the data was from March.
This paper seems to be a predecessor to the people in Texas discussed in the Irish newspapers.
Put it this way, if my GP was offering a BCG booster I'd be down there in a shot.

The UK figures look to be heading to a bad place and doubt that they would fit neatly into that chart, given that a BCG programme there. The reason I mentioned the ethnicity factor above, was that I was wondering if there is a greater incidence among immigrants in the UK.  The UK did have a BCG programme, but immigrants would have missed out, depending on where they came from.  But as J70 points out, the cause here may be something completely different.   

[Eamonnca1]

936 UK deaths in 24 hours. Highest Italy recorded was 971 and UK is still probably a week or so off the peak.

Yup, it's not looking good for the UK.

"The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle predicts 66,000 UK deaths from Covid-19 by August, with a peak of nearly 3,000 a day, based on a steep climb in daily deaths early in the outbreak."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/uk-will-be-europes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts

[Milltown Row2]

936 UK deaths in 24 hours. Highest Italy recorded was 971 and UK is still probably a week or so off the peak.

Yup, it's not looking good for the UK.

"The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle predicts 66,000 UK deaths from Covid-19 by August, with a peak of nearly 3,000 a day, based on a steep climb in daily deaths early in the outbreak."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/uk-will-be-europes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts

Thats well below the worst predicted figures, anything from 20,000 to 200,000!

[trileacman]

That BCG thing is a complete red herring. Everyone bar the immigrants in the UK were vaccinated from 1952 to 2005. Yet the UK looks like it's going to be a particularly hard hit country.

More telling from that data is that the poorer countries have a lesser incidence.

Telling people to run down to their gp and get the bcg vaccine which the vast vast majority of us have got already is reckless and irresponsible.

[armaghniac]

That BCG thing is a complete red herring. Everyone bar the immigrants in the UK were vaccinated from 1952 to 2005. Yet the UK looks like it's going to be a particularly hard hit country.

You can't say that it is or isn't until you control for other factors; density of population, temperature and above all the extent and timing of measures. Nowhere in the world is the virus being allowed to proceed without intervention and those interventions may have a larger effect than BCG.
Also as noted earlier in the thread, nation-states are probably not the unit of analysis to use, rather regions. The 133 dead in Sicily compares well with the ROI, showing that Italy is not homogeneous. New York State now has more confirmed virus cases, 149,316, than any country in the world outside the United States.

[Milltown Row2]

That BCG thing is a complete red herring. Everyone bar the immigrants in the UK were vaccinated from 1952 to 2005. Yet the UK looks like it's going to be a particularly hard hit country.

You can't say that it is or isn't until you control for other factors; density of population, temperature and above all the extent and timing of measures. Nowhere in the world is the virus being allowed to proceed without intervention and those interventions may have a larger effect than BCG.
Also as noted earlier in the thread, nation-states are probably not the unit of analysis to use, rather regions. The 133 dead in Sicily compares well with the ROI, showing that Italy is not homogeneous. New York State now has more confirmed virus cases, 149,316, than any country in the world outside the United States.

Will we ever get the proper figures for the likes of Russia and China? Russia has only 63 deaths?

[Gmac]

That BCG thing is a complete red herring. Everyone bar the immigrants in the UK were vaccinated from 1952 to 2005. Yet the UK looks like it's going to be a particularly hard hit country.

You can't say that it is or isn't until you control for other factors; density of population, temperature and above all the extent and timing of measures. Nowhere in the world is the virus being allowed to proceed without intervention and those interventions may have a larger effect than BCG.
Also as noted earlier in the thread, nation-states are probably not the unit of analysis to use, rather regions. The 133 dead in Sicily compares well with the ROI, showing that Italy is not homogeneous. New York State now has more confirmed virus cases, 149,316, than any country in the world outside the United States.

Will we ever get the proper figures for the likes of Russia and China? Russia has only 63 deaths?

india

[armaghniac]

That BCG thing is a complete red herring. Everyone bar the immigrants in the UK were vaccinated from 1952 to 2005. Yet the UK looks like it's going to be a particularly hard hit country.

You can't say that it is or isn't until you control for other factors; density of population, temperature and above all the extent and timing of measures. Nowhere in the world is the virus being allowed to proceed without intervention and those interventions may have a larger effect than BCG.
Also as noted earlier in the thread, nation-states are probably not the unit of analysis to use, rather regions. The 133 dead in Sicily compares well with the ROI, showing that Italy is not homogeneous. New York State now has more confirmed virus cases, 149,316, than any country in the world outside the United States.

Will we ever get the proper figures for the likes of Russia and China? Russia has only 63 deaths?

Hong Kong has had 4 deaths and Taiwan 5.  China is comparable to these places, are they also fiddling the books.

[Milltown Row2]

That BCG thing is a complete red herring. Everyone bar the immigrants in the UK were vaccinated from 1952 to 2005. Yet the UK looks like it's going to be a particularly hard hit country.

You can't say that it is or isn't until you control for other factors; density of population, temperature and above all the extent and timing of measures. Nowhere in the world is the virus being allowed to proceed without intervention and those interventions may have a larger effect than BCG.
Also as noted earlier in the thread, nation-states are probably not the unit of analysis to use, rather regions. The 133 dead in Sicily compares well with the ROI, showing that Italy is not homogeneous. New York State now has more confirmed virus cases, 149,316, than any country in the world outside the United States.

Will we ever get the proper figures for the likes of Russia and China? Russia has only 63 deaths?

india

Crazy figure for India

[Hound]

Those holiday-homers taking a right bashing on social media. And Gardai creating massive traffic jams, which is a great deterrent!

Personally not sure how traveling in your car and go to your empty holiday home, and stick to the same regime of only leaving the house for your daily walk/exercise and for groceries would be increasing the risk of catching or spreading the virus.

[LeoMc]

Those holiday-homers taking a right bashing on social media. And Gardai creating massive traffic jams, which is a great deterrent!

Personally not sure how traveling in your car and go to your empty holiday home, and stick to the same regime of only leaving the house for your daily walk/exercise and for groceries would be increasing the risk of catching or spreading the virus.

Same as walking in beauty spots, etc. Grand if you are the only one doing it. Not so good for the locals if the population of thei village double switch a crowd coming from places where the virus is more prevalent.

[armaghniac]

Those holiday-homers taking a right bashing on social media. And Gardai creating massive traffic jams, which is a great deterrent!

Personally not sure how traveling in your car and go to your empty holiday home, and stick to the same regime of only leaving the house for your daily walk/exercise and for groceries would be increasing the risk of catching or spreading the virus.

Apart from crowding certain spots, you are going to a different grocery shop and indirectly coming into contact with a whole different set of people.

[Rois]

Plus Letterkenny Hospital (an example) doesn't need 1.25x its usual population to manage, not just with C19 but other "normal" emergencies (road traffic accidents, falls etc).