Election 2011 Offical Thread.

[muppet]

Dublin North has a young population in essentially a commuter belt, with a rural hinterland.  Hard to see how it'll go at present but FF will lose heavily - both current seats are probably in ejopardy:

Sitting TDs:
Sargent (Green)
Reilly (FG)
O'Brien (FF)
Kennedy (FF)

Clare Daly (Socialist) has been close before and may take a seat.  Brendan Ryan (Labour) may claw back his brother's seat (Sean Ryan) too, probably to the detriment of Greens/FF.  Not much young blood in any of the parties showing their faces heretofore.  Reilly might drag another FG with him; if he does there may be no FF seats here!  Right now, I'd predict:

Reilly (FG)
Ryan (Labour)
Daly (Socialist)
O'Brien (FF)

Same for me, though I reckon Sargent might hang on as he is the only Green who can say I resigned rather than go into Government with FF. I just can't see Daly making it. Although if it ever happens for her it will be this time.

As for Mayo PSTG is predicting 4 FG and 1 FF. The reality is it will be 3 FG (Kenny, Ring and 1 from Mulherrin/O'Mahoney - probably Johnno) 1/2 FF (Calleary/Flynn - the dynasty's electoral machine should never be underestimated) and possibly 1 Labour in Jerry Cowley although he lost his seat last time for backing Shell to Sea.

[Banana Man]

so what's the timeframe?

On the radio it give that the greens had called for a general election in late january? when does the budget have to go in front of the dail by?

Will the IMF/EU get nervous over this development and as they hold the purse strings impose further conditions given the instability of government?

[Bogball XV]

There'll be an election before christmas. The budget won't pass. I've a funny feeling FF are co ordinating this more than they are letting on.

You and your conspiracy theories Zap, when have FF not been straight with us?

[Zapatista]

There'll be an election before christmas. The budget won't pass. I've a funny feeling FF are co ordinating this more than they are letting on.

You and your conspiracy theories Zap, when have FF not been straight with us?

I suppose.

I think the budget won't pass. This will undermind the Green effort today. A Christmas election suits FF as they are guaranteed to get their vote out. They're like cornered rats. FG and LB will have to campaign on a 4 year plan and they will have to prove that there plans are better than eachothers but aswell as that they will have to keep the impression that they can work together. FF will be in opposition for 4 years while FG and LB push the 4 years of cuts through. Best case scenario for FF.

[AbbeySider]

This is how i think it will run in Mayo. If others do it by their constituency we'll get a better view of who total number for each party

1. Michael Ring. (Fine Gael)
2. Enda Kenny. (Fine Gael)
3. John O Mahoney. (Fine Gael)
4. Michelle Mulhern. (Fine Gael)
5. Dara Calleary. (Fianna FAIL)

You think O Mahoney will get his seat? I think he could be in for a surprise, hope he is.
As muppet said Jerry Cowley could be back in the frame.

1. Michael Ring. (Fine Gael)
2. Enda Kenny. (Fine Gael)
3. Michelle Mulhern. (Fine Gael)
4. Jerry Cowley
5. Dara Calleary. (Fianna FAIL)

[An Gaeilgoir]

This is how i think it will run in Mayo. If others do it by their constituency we'll get a better view of who total number for each party

1. Michael Ring. (Fine Gael)
2. Enda Kenny. (Fine Gael)
3. John O Mahoney. (Fine Gael)
4. Michelle Mulhern. (Fine Gael)
5. Dara Calleary. (Fianna FAIL)

You think O Mahoney will get his seat? I think he could be in for a surprise, hope he is.
As muppet said Jerry Cowley could be back in the frame.

1. Michael Ring. (Fine Gael)
2. Enda Kenny. (Fine Gael)
3. Michelle Mulhern. (Fine Gael)
4. Jerry Cowley
5. Dara Calleary. (Fianna FAIL)

I for one dont want to see Cowley get next or near the Dail again. According to lads i know down his way, he lost a lot of support with his Shell to sea misjudgement. Another reason i dont want to see him in there is he is always at the top of the medical card earnings year in year out, which for a GP in rural Ireland makes me suspicious.

[ludermor]

Ring will be due a senior ministry if he tops the poll especially after his staunch defence of Kenny this year. And that scares the bejasus out of me !

[thejuice]

http://www.checktheregister.ie/

Deadline to register to vote is THIS Thursday 25th Nov.

[Peter Solan the Great]

This is how i think it will run in Mayo. If others do it by their constituency we'll get a better view of who total number for each party

1. Michael Ring. (Fine Gael)
2. Enda Kenny. (Fine Gael)
3. John O Mahoney. (Fine Gael)
4. Michelle Mulhern. (Fine Gael)
5. Dara Calleary. (Fianna FAIL)

You think O Mahoney will get his seat? I think he could be in for a surprise, hope he is.
As muppet said Jerry Cowley could be back in the frame.

1. Michael Ring. (Fine Gael)
2. Enda Kenny. (Fine Gael)
3. Michelle Mulhern. (Fine Gael)
4. Jerry Cowley
5. Dara Calleary. (Fianna FAIL)

I for one dont want to see Cowley get next or near the Dail again. According to lads i know down his way, he lost a lot of support with his Shell to sea misjudgement. Another reason i dont want to see him in there is he is always at the top of the medical card earnings year in year out, which for a GP in rural Ireland makes me suspicious.

I think John will get in. He will get a lot of transfers from Enda and Ring. One man I forgot about though is Jim Higgins, if he runs O'Mahony wont get in. I doubt he will leave his cushy number in Europe though.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayo_(D%C3%A1il_%C3%89ireann_constituency)

[An Gaeilgoir]

Just had a look at the BBC News 24 website, its all about our country but in the list of most viewed at number 4 is "Sham Marriages" i wonder is it the Greens and FF they are on about? or maybe Jackie HR and FF?

[Bogball XV]

Paddypower makes Enda 4/7 fav over Gilmore to be next taoiseach.

The greens are 7/4 to have no seats - must worth snapping up, surely Sargent is the only one with a shout?
Boyd Barret is 5/4 to have no seats

It's only 15/8 that labour have more than 60 seats and 7/2 that FF have less than 30.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-government?ev_oc_grp_ids=46674

[mc_grens]

There'll be an election before christmas. The budget won't pass. I've a funny feeling FF are co ordinating this more than they are letting on.

You and your conspiracy theories Zap, when have FF not been straight with us?

I suppose.

I think the budget won't pass. This will undermind the Green effort today. A Christmas election suits FF as they are guaranteed to get their vote out. They're like cornered rats. FG and LB will have to campaign on a 4 year plan and they will have to prove that there plans are better than eachothers but aswell as that they will have to keep the impression that they can work together. FF will be in opposition for 4 years while FG and LB push the 4 years of cuts through. Best case scenario for FF.

I don't think there's any doubt the budget will pass. I think that's why the greens are hanging around til January.

[DUBSFORSAM1]

The budget has to be passed for the good of the country.....worst comes to worst it can be changed in the new year with the new govt.

FG 65
Labour 45
FF 35
SF 7
Others 14

[Bogball XV]

I don't think there's any doubt the budget will pass. I think that's why the greens are hanging around til January.

For one thing the greens may have miscalculated, there's about 45/50 FF TD's who are very, very worried about their future employment prospects (it's good that they'll be able to empathaise with the rest of us).  The first one or two of them to revolt will have a lot better chance of getting back in than the ones who toe the extremely unpopular party line. 

And, it only needs one or two of them to revolt.

[Bogball XV]

The budget has to be passed for the good of the country.....worst comes to worst it can be changed in the new year with the new govt.

Explain that, because, I have heard that being pedalled several times, but I have no idea why that is the case.