Brexit.

Started by T Fearon, November 01, 2015, 06:04:06 PM

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RedHand88

Quote from: Insane Bolt on February 13, 2019, 12:24:06 PM
PMQ's .....so fcking childish. The last decent person to enter parliament was Guy Fawkes.

They're all half cut. The bar should be off limits whilst there's important decision making (wink wink) going on. What other job would you be allowed to turn up under the influence?

imtommygunn

Quote from: johnnycool on February 13, 2019, 10:25:09 AM
Quote from: haranguerer on February 13, 2019, 09:59:23 AM
Quote from: NAG1 on February 13, 2019, 09:39:02 AM
Quote from: Walter Cronc on February 13, 2019, 09:26:10 AM
So just to clarify that Guardian article.

When they talk about her deal are they referring to the original backstop one that got defeated, or the recent one that seeks to tear up the backstop?

The latter WC.

The original deal is seen as dead in the water after the historic defeat so the only way it will get through now is with the Backstop ammendment which the EU have steadfastly said will not be changed.

Brits pinning their hopes on the fact that the EU have in the past done last minute deals to get problems sorted, but it is the riskiest of risky strategies when the EU have made it abundently clear that this wont be happening as it was the Brits who put the back stop into the agreement in the first place.

I don't get that from reading it. It seems to be the former - May apparently stalling so that the Brits, her own MP's, are forced into accepting her original deal, or face a long delay

(there is only one deal)

Is that not what yer man Ollie was supposed to have said very loudly in a Brussels bar the other night and ITV are all over it like a rash as their reporter was in earshot.


Also turns out that the backstop was not something the Irish Gov/EU came up with on their own and imposed it on the UK, Teasie and Co were also involved in its creation from the get go as it was meant to be the transitional status.
That won't please the DUPers.

Teasie is going to throw some glitter on this old deal and look to force it through by threatening all and sundry with their worst fears and then she's going to ride off into the sunset come the summer.

I was watching that last leg on channel 4 one night and Alistair Campbell was on it. Now he is a gobshite with plenty to answer for but what he said pretty much summed it up. May negotiated the backstop then has went back to the Eu saying she didn't want the backstop she negotiated. She's a fool.

seafoid

By far the best predictor in 2007 of economic chaos later was the  pre-crisis external deficit.  Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain all had current account deficits in 2007 and were all living beyond their means .

In the third quarter of 2018 the UK recorded a current account deficit of GBP 26.5 billion. The UK is also living beyond its means.
Brexit is very dangerous

"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

yellowcard

Quote from: seafoid on February 13, 2019, 02:00:40 PM
By far the best predictor in 2007 of economic chaos later was the  pre-crisis external deficit.  Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain all had current account deficits in 2007 and were all living beyond their means .

In the third quarter of 2018 the UK recorded a current account deficit of GBP 26.5 billion. The UK is also living beyond its means.
Brexit is very dangerous

And there will be some people waiting to cash in on such an eventuality....

trailer

Was at a Brexit briefing yesterday run by Invest NI. OMG. We are so fucked.

north_antrim_hound

Quote from: trailer on February 13, 2019, 03:58:50 PM
Was at a Brexit briefing yesterday run by Invest NI. OMG. We are so fucked.

Give us some details
There's a man with a mullet going mad with a mallet in Millets

RadioGAAGAA

Quote from: trailer on February 13, 2019, 03:58:50 PM
We are so fucked.

Regardless of what INI said, yes, we are completely fucked.

Folks don't realise that we are *possibly* staring down the barrel of not being a 1st world country any more (in event of no-deal brexit).


[We won't become 3rd world. But not 1st world either. Govt debt default, health and social system collapse, mass unemployment, devalue of pound, etc etc]
i usse an speelchekor

trailer

Quote from: north_antrim_hound on February 13, 2019, 04:06:22 PM
Quote from: trailer on February 13, 2019, 03:58:50 PM
Was at a Brexit briefing yesterday run by Invest NI. OMG. We are so fucked.

Give us some details

In a general sense business is not ready. In the event of the withdrawal deal being approved a lot of issues will still arise over customs, vat. Who pays what and when. Can cash-flows cope. Free movement of people will end. Labour pool will drop from 500m to roughly 50m people. Massive supply chain interruption. And as I say this in the scenario of a deal.
No deal - who knows.


seafoid

Quote from: trailer on February 13, 2019, 03:58:50 PM
Was at a Brexit briefing yesterday run by Invest NI. OMG. We are so fucked.

Not necessarily

There is a lot of political theatre . Tory MPs are likely to wake up to the No deal horror show
Plus there is horse trading to do ...


https://www.ft.com/content/2128565a-2ba9-11e9-88a4-c32129756dd8

   Brexit goes to the brink
History tells us we should not draw conclusions from the lack of agreement at this moment
Wolfgang Münchau
         Theresa May and Donald Tusk. Both Mrs May and the EU have a powerful common interest in avoiding a hard Brexit; both are willing to compromise © Getty
Wolfgang Münchau
      
               February 10, 2019
         
Donald Tusk's outburst imagining a "special place in hell" for the UK's proponents of Brexit without a plan tells us that he has moved on to the next phase in the five stages of mourning. The president of the European Council is angry because he has finally realised that Brexit is actually going to happen — and that the UK could leave the EU without a deal. Mr Tusk is probably still confused, but at least he is now confused at a higher level.

Recognition of reality is an important step on the road to acceptance. And it is one thing to say that you expect something to happen. But quite another to actually believe it. And those who are now panicking the most tend to be the same as those who were the most complacent before. The German media, which I follow very closely, spent the last two and half years focusing on the campaign to hold a second referendum. The every utterance of Tony Blair or John Major, Britain's two pro-EU former prime ministers, made front-page news. So did the big anti-Brexit demonstrations. Recently, the tone has changed. There is suddenly a lot of "Oh my God, this is really happening" commentary. I am certain that Brexit will happen, but the relative probabilities of a Brexit with or without a deal are harder to gauge. Events intrude all the time to obscure the European view: Mr Tusk's comments, the sudden downturn in the eurozone economy, or even the increasingly erratic behaviour of Emmanuel Macron.

Last week, the French president recalled his ambassador to Rome in response to a political spat with Italy's Five Star Movement. At the December European Council meeting, he threatened to keep the UK trapped in the provisions of the Northern Ireland backstop forever — unless the British agree to keep their coastal waters open to French fisherman. If there ever existed a rational reason for the UK's MPs to question the EU's good faith in agreeing to the backstop in Theresa May's withdrawal deal, Mr Macron provided it. Despite these intrusions on to the scene, I remain moderately optimistic about a Brexit deal. There exists a narrow but clear path towards it — one that requires compromise in Brussels as well as in Westminister. At the EU end, Angela Merkel may yet emerge as an effective power broker. I yield to no one in my criticism of the German chancellor's handling of the eurozone crises.

But her detached, analytical approach is the mindset needed at the summit towards the end of March. She is right to say that the EU needs to explore creative solutions to the Irish backstop. We are once again approaching High Noon — a similar crunch point as the Maastricht summit in 1991 or the Greek crisis summit in 2015. In both cases, agreement seemed impossible. Until it happened.History tells us we should not draw conclusions from the lack of agreement right now. The EU is not going to offer any concessions at this point. But once everybody enters the hall of smoke and mirrors at the European Council meeting on March 21, things will change.It is also wrong to think about these negotiations as a staring contest. Both Mrs May and the EU have a powerful common interest in avoiding a hard Brexit; both are willing to compromise. And do not overstate the asymmetry in the costs of a hard Brexit.

It is trivially true that a hard Brexit will affect the UK more than the EU, but this ignores that the UK voted for Brexit while the EU did not. There would be known losers such as the car industry, but many smaller ones as well. Dutch vegetable growers would stand to lose their biggest market and could end up dumping their tomatoes on German consumers, crowding out local producers. Can EU leaders really be confident that their voters will blame the British rather than them? I also believe that agreement on the Irish backstop is possible. The EU will not agree to a formal end date. But it can give better legal assurances. Article 50, the basis for Brexit under EU law, allows the two sides to make arrangements for the transition. But permanent trade agreements fall outside its scope.

Transitional arrangements cannot be indefinite: if Mr Macron decides to veto a trade deal over fishing rights, or if trade talks are abandoned, then surely the transition will be over.The political declaration on the future relationship could also change — allowing for possibilities that could include a customs union. The final decision about the future would then be left to a vote in the UK parliament after Brexit.

The second crucial moment will come after the summit when MPs would meet to cast their final meaningful vote. It will be the last week before the Brexit deadline of March 29. It could, in theory, drag out all the way until that evening. There will be no options left to take off the table. And however it turns out, there will be angry people who did not see this coming.
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

Harold Disgracey

I have attended quite a few Brexit clinics organised by QUB. General consensus is we're fucked and you can't trust the Brits.

I have just launched a research project to scope the impact of the various Brexit scenarios on the housing market in the north. Should be interesting!

Walter Cronc

Quote from: Harold Disgracey on February 13, 2019, 04:47:21 PM
I have attended quite a few Brexit clinics organised by QUB. General consensus is we're fucked and you can't trust the Brits.

I have just launched a research project to scope the impact of the various Brexit scenarios on the housing market in the north. Should be interesting!

Jeez HD I recently bought one in Belfast. Hope I'm not in bother  :o

trailer

Quote from: Harold Disgracey on February 13, 2019, 04:47:21 PM
I have attended quite a few Brexit clinics organised by QUB. General consensus is we're fucked and you can't trust the Brits.

I have just launched a research project to scope the impact of the various Brexit scenarios on the housing market in the north. Should be interesting!

In the scenario of a deal a lot of companies don't have the capacity or the skills to complete customs declarations, to control interruptions to their supply chains, finance to cope with tariffs and VAT. And the old " register a company in the ROI" is not the silver bullet everyone perceives it to be. The actual small, bit by bit outworkings specific to each and every SME is the problem. Even if you are ready is your supplier. Can you get another supplier(s)? Are they as good? Are they more expensive? Can they meet your time frames?  Multiply by 5, 50, 500, 5000 suppliers.


Harold Disgracey

Quote from: Walter Cronc on February 13, 2019, 04:51:21 PM
Quote from: Harold Disgracey on February 13, 2019, 04:47:21 PM
I have attended quite a few Brexit clinics organised by QUB. General consensus is we're fucked and you can't trust the Brits.

I have just launched a research project to scope the impact of the various Brexit scenarios on the housing market in the north. Should be interesting!

Jeez HD I recently bought one in Belfast. Hope I'm not in bother  :o

Will be interesting to see what potential impact might be on the private rented sector with the ending of free movement.

yellowcard

Quote from: Harold Disgracey on February 13, 2019, 04:47:21 PM
I have attended quite a few Brexit clinics organised by QUB. General consensus is we're fucked and you can't trust the Brits.

I have just launched a research project to scope the impact of the various Brexit scenarios on the housing market in the north. Should be interesting!

Would be interested to see the results of that project particularly with the amount of foreign nationals living in privately rented accomodation.

trailer

Quote from: yellowcard on February 13, 2019, 04:59:09 PM
Quote from: Harold Disgracey on February 13, 2019, 04:47:21 PM
I have attended quite a few Brexit clinics organised by QUB. General consensus is we're fucked and you can't trust the Brits.

I have just launched a research project to scope the impact of the various Brexit scenarios on the housing market in the north. Should be interesting!

Would be interested to see the results of that project particularly with the amount of foreign nationals living in privately rented accomodation.

I know very little about the housing market. However I wouldn't be making a massive investment of thousands of pounds this side of March 30th 2019.