China Coronavirus

Started by lurganblue, January 23, 2020, 09:52:32 AM

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thewobbler

Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on March 08, 2020, 07:24:26 PM
Quote from: thewobbler on March 08, 2020, 07:18:57 PM
Radio, let's leave money aside. Both the UK and Ireland agree to close their ports and airports, and to close them to each other. Honestly, how long until anarchy?

Just what do you think is coming down the track if they don't?

The 4 wide scenarios.

1. An absolute shitshow, a proper doomsday virus that continually mutates and strengthens, taking all but the strong and the lucky.
2. Something along its current lines, and its initial state proves to be a mass killer and changes the face of Irish society forever, wiping out a double digit percentage of the population within a year or two.
3. Something along its current lines, which spreads quickly enough and mutates often  enough to become an accustomed part of living in the developed world, like the flu, and each year enough medical improvements come along to lessen its impact on those who become infected.
4.  Something along its current lines, except it doesn't mutate frequently enough and in a relatively short space of time, all but disappears.


You are determined that it's going to be a 1 or a 2. Which is okay.

But  I'd suggest that if it's a 1, there's f**k all anyone can do about it. If it's a 2, then all a government can really do is, if they're lucky, postpone the inevitable for a while. If it's a 4, then we would have been better off not getting into a twist about it.  So that leaves 3. And as we've never quite mastered the flu, I'm not sure whether we will with this virus either.

Milltown Row2

Look it is what it is, we all have someone close to us (both parents for me) that fall into the bracket of vulnerability to catching and (heaven forbid) succumbing to a deadly virus earlier than expected, but the doomsday's carry on at the minute is out of or control, let's see it out, bit like brexit  ;)
None of us are getting out of here alive, so please stop treating yourself like an after thought. Ea

thewobbler

#482
Radio. Listen.

If this virus is as contagious as you wish to believe, then shutting down Italian and Chinese travel is not enough. Even if Leo had have convinced the Uk to do likewise, it would have been a finger in the dam. With NI not bound by the same regulations, it would be like trying to serve a pint in a sieve.

I can get what you're saying about buying the health service time, and easing the initial load while a plan is created. But how much difference would 3 months / 6 months / 18 months really make here to a health service that has no potential to scale to the levels of need that worry you?  Especially when the tipping point here is not a plane load of Italians shopping in Dublin City Centre, but a healthy Irishman who says mass on a Sunday, does a hospital round on the Monday, welcomes children to  the local play school on the Tuesday, draws bingo on the Wednesday, and realises on the Thursday that his cough is getting worse, not better..

RadioGAAGAA

Quote from: thewobbler on March 08, 2020, 07:39:14 PM
2. Something along its current lines, and its initial state proves to be a mass killer and changes the face of Irish society forever, wiping out a double digit percentage of the population within a year or two.
3. Something along its current lines, which spreads quickly enough and mutates often  enough to become an accustomed part of living in the developed world, like the flu, and each year enough medical improvements come along to lessen its impact on those who become infected.

Leaving aside (1), because it doesn't matter what we do and leaving aside (4), as that is hoping for luck to carry us through.

For me, I see, well, seen - its too late now - the sensible plan as ultimately being one of:

(i) buying time for a vaccine.
(ii) restrict any instances of the disease to directly those entering the country.
(iii) keep the burden to NHS/HSE as low as possible.

With that in mind, I would have essentially shut the air/sea travel to passengers, goods can continue - but required disinfection and their own quarantine time. Anyone that must travel must accept strict quarantine (not self-quarantine) on arrival in country. No ifs, no buts.

If the numbers could have been limited to the few that travel in, then the NHS/HSE could have managed. It could also have been stopped from "breaking out".

That would also have allowed time to set up the manpower/infrastructure to deal for when it eventually does (and it would) break out into the country. Then when someone "inside" gets it, you have the resources to trace and quarantine all contacts. Act strong early, be that close workplaces, schools etc, and you slow or if your lucky, stop the spread.



Instead, we've had half-measures and ineptitude. Now the NHS/HSE will (effectively) collapse under the strain. Probably before end of April.
i usse an speelchekor

RadioGAAGAA

Quote from: thewobbler on March 08, 2020, 07:48:47 PMBut how much difference would 3 months / 6 months / 18 months really make here to a health service that has no potential to scale to the levels of need that worry you?

18 months is the magic number - as your likely to be into the realms of vaccination territory, at least for the most vulnerable.

i usse an speelchekor

RadioGAAGAA

Quote from: thewobbler on March 08, 2020, 07:48:47 PM
If this virus is as contagious as you wish to believe, then shutting down Italian and Chinese travel is not enough. Even if Leo had have convinced the Uk to do likewise, it would have been a finger in the dam. With NI not bound by the same regulations, it would be like trying to serve a pint in a sieve.

That is why all political leaders everywhere share the blame for this.

Sure they can sit down and "discuss" it. As if a politician discussing something arrived at anything useful in a hurry.


Look at what China has had to do to try and contain it and keep the health services outside Wuhan functioning. Do you see anything like that degree of hard decision being made by the leaders here?
i usse an speelchekor

Itchy

Radio has a point. I work for a US multinational and we have stopped all visits for our people and all visitors from outside coming to us. Anyone travelling from an infected area is being told to not come to work for 2 weeks. All multinationals I have contact with are doing the same. So why are the irish government, for example, even considering allowing St Patrick's day parade. Money should not be the top consideration in every scenario. Why are we allowing ejits to fly out to ski holidays today to Italy. Its crazy.

Eamonnca1

Quote from: Milltown Row2 on March 08, 2020, 07:44:18 PM
Look it is what it is, we all have someone close to us (both parents for me) that fall into the bracket of vulnerability to catching and (heaven forbid) succumbing to a deadly virus earlier than expected, but the doomsday's carry on at the minute is out of or control, let's see it out, bit like brexit  ;)

133 deaths in a single day in Italy. I've just been instructed to work from home for the next fortnight.

I think we can stop playing it down now. And that goes for the squatter in the White House too.

thewobbler

Ah now we are at the nub of it, basically, it's always someone else's fault.

——-

Neither you, me, nor anyone on this thread, nor indeed anyone in Ireland, has the faintest idea of how swiftly China acted, nor how progressively or humanely they have acted, nor how effective their actions have been.

You only know what they are willing to share, and they are unlikely to share the story as it happened.

If you are choosing to highlight their actions as something to emulate, it is the epitome of confirmation bias.



thewobbler

Quote from: Itchy on March 08, 2020, 07:58:41 PM
Radio has a point. I work for a US multinational and we have stopped all visits for our people and all visitors from outside coming to us. Anyone travelling from an infected area is being told to not come to work for 2 weeks. All multinationals I have contact with are doing the same. So why are the irish government, for example, even considering allowing St Patrick's day parade. Money should not be the top consideration in every scenario. Why are we allowing ejits to fly out to ski holidays today to Italy. Its crazy.

To blame the government's actions (or lack thereof) on money is lazy analysis. There is of course an economical angle to consider, but only in the fact that society will implode without an economic baseline whereby people work, people earn, people trade earnings for goods and services.. This is not about trying to  save €1bn or about keeping a bank afloat, or about Ireland's worldwide financial rating.

armaghniac

Quote from: Itchy on March 08, 2020, 07:58:41 PM
Radio has a point. I work for a US multinational and we have stopped all visits for our people and all visitors from outside coming to us. Anyone travelling from an infected area is being told to not come to work for 2 weeks. All multinationals I have contact with are doing the same. So why are the irish government, for example, even considering allowing St Patrick's day parade. Money should not be the top consideration in every scenario. Why are we allowing ejits to fly out to ski holidays today to Italy. Its crazy.

I suspect the parade is not the biggest problem, it has been suggested that  transmission outdoors is less of a problem, especially if the weather is like today and people are well wrapped up. The bigger problem may be people in pubs etc. Perhaps we should follow the Italian principle of only allowing bars open during the day and if they can keep people 2 metres apart.

Quote from: thewobbler on March 08, 2020, 08:03:24 PM
Neither you, me, nor anyone on this thread, nor indeed anyone in Ireland, has the faintest idea of how swiftly China acted, nor how progressively or humanely they have acted, nor how effective their actions have been.

Of course some people in Ireland, if not on this thread, have the faintest idea; we have evacuees from Wuhan, we have reports from the WHO. There may be some limitations to this information, but we know the general idea. We can also learn from Hong Kong and Singapore, where the disease is fairly well under control without complete lockdowns, but with actions all the same. There they have "maintained the economic baseline".
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

AFM

#491

AFM

Quote from: Milltown Row2 on March 08, 2020, 07:44:18 PM
Look it is what it is, we all have someone close to us (both parents for me) that fall into the bracket of vulnerability to catching and (heaven forbid) succumbing to a deadly virus earlier than expected, but the doomsday's carry on at the minute is out of or control, let's see it out, bit like brexit  ;)

Didn't realise brexit was killing folk by the hour.

Milltown Row2

Quote from: AFM on March 08, 2020, 08:57:15 PM
Quote from: Milltown Row2 on March 08, 2020, 07:44:18 PM
Look it is what it is, we all have someone close to us (both parents for me) that fall into the bracket of vulnerability to catching and (heaven forbid) succumbing to a deadly virus earlier than expected, but the doomsday's carry on at the minute is out of or control, let's see it out, bit like brexit  ;)

Didn't realise brexit was killing folk by the hour.

By the hour? How many weeks now? Christmas was 3 months ago? Death rate in Ireland is?
None of us are getting out of here alive, so please stop treating yourself like an after thought. Ea

bennydorano

The UK & Ireland are both in a healthier position than a lot of countries, the natural defences of being island nations should be a big help if & when the harsh restrictions eventually do come. I would think the USA is going to suffer badly, it wasn't being taken seriously until the horse had bolted; the uninsured people / expensive nature of the healthcare system is a recipe for disaster. It should derail Trump's re-election too, his idiocy will become increasingly clear, even for the zealots if he continues with the nonsense in the face of rising death rates and economic recession.