Westminster Election 12th December 2019

Started by Ambrose, October 29, 2019, 02:24:04 PM

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bennydorano

It's Miracle of Istanbul territory now, everything has to fall into place perfectly for Labour to merely achieve a hung parliament- the best way to achieve a 2nd Referendum. Tactical voting has to be perfect, the margins of errors in the polls have to fall their way, the Brexit party taking Labour votes in targeted seats has to be ineffective, turnout because of weather / the season has to be in their favour, the youth vote has to fall favourably over targeted constituencies. That's a lot of variables that have to go their way

seafoid

Quote from: LeoMc on December 09, 2019, 09:16:52 AM
Quote from: seafoid on December 09, 2019, 08:17:54 AM
Quote from: bennydorano on December 09, 2019, 07:46:43 AM
Latest Survation poll
Con 45%
Lab 31%
Lib 11 %
Brex 4%
If the perceived Tory lead is too big Lib Dem voters will switch to Labour to stop Brexit.

Quote from: seafoid on December 07, 2019, 10:03:46 PM
Another way of looking at it

Tories on 41. Labour on 33. LD on 12 is key.  Remain is thus 45. 45> 41



To guarantee Remain , a last minute surge to Labour would be necessary. All down to tactical voting now.

Why swing to Labour, why not swing to the LD's where they have the best chance of unseating the Tories?
Labout have 10x the seats thje LDs have
Tactical voting encourages voters to support whichever candidate is closest to winning.
For non tactical I would expect people to move from LD to Labour
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

imtommygunn

Quote from: bennydorano on December 09, 2019, 10:51:56 AM
It's Miracle of Istanbul territory now, everything has to fall into place perfectly for Labour to merely achieve a hung parliament- the best way to achieve a 2nd Referendum. Tactical voting has to be perfect, the margins of errors in the polls have to fall their way, the Brexit party taking Labour votes in targeted seats has to be ineffective, turnout because of weather / the season has to be in their favour, the youth vote has to fall favourably over targeted constituencies. That's a lot of variables that have to go their way

Yeah it's not going to happen is it :(

yellowcard

Quote from: bennydorano on December 09, 2019, 10:51:56 AM
It's Miracle of Istanbul territory now, everything has to fall into place perfectly for Labour to merely achieve a hung parliament- the best way to achieve a 2nd Referendum. Tactical voting has to be perfect, the margins of errors in the polls have to fall their way, the Brexit party taking Labour votes in targeted seats has to be ineffective, turnout because of weather / the season has to be in their favour, the youth vote has to fall favourably over targeted constituencies. That's a lot of variables that have to go their way

Based on that latest poll where the Tories have regained ground despite their campaign based on a basic slogan and no substance, it is depressing to think that a UK electorate would mandate a far right Tory party with a workable majority back into government. What does it tell you about modern society and the UK electorate though? The Tories fought a campaign on a basic message of 'getting Brexit done' and it looks as though it has worked. Barring a miracle it appears as though the Tories will get back in with a majority to do as they see fit. Given the make up of this next cabinet with carte blanche to do whatever they want, I wouldn't even rule out a no deal Brexit at this point.

Jeepers Creepers

There are alot of people who do not read from credible media sources (few left) to see all poitical lies exposed. They take exactly at face value what they read on the dominant Tory backed papers. So it doesn't matter how many twitter campaigns there are highlighting all lies and injustices...

magpie seanie

Quote from: yellowcard on December 09, 2019, 12:34:10 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on December 09, 2019, 10:51:56 AM
It's Miracle of Istanbul territory now, everything has to fall into place perfectly for Labour to merely achieve a hung parliament- the best way to achieve a 2nd Referendum. Tactical voting has to be perfect, the margins of errors in the polls have to fall their way, the Brexit party taking Labour votes in targeted seats has to be ineffective, turnout because of weather / the season has to be in their favour, the youth vote has to fall favourably over targeted constituencies. That's a lot of variables that have to go their way

Based on that latest poll where the Tories have regained ground despite their campaign based on a basic slogan and no substance, it is depressing to think that a UK electorate would mandate a far right Tory party with a workable majority back into government. What does it tell you about modern society and the UK electorate though? The Tories fought a campaign on a basic message of 'getting Brexit done' and it looks as though it has worked. Barring a miracle it appears as though the Tories will get back in with a majority to do as they see fit. Given the make up of this next cabinet with carte blanche to do whatever they want, I wouldn't even rule out a no deal Brexit at this point.

Why so down over one poll which seems to be an outlier in the recent trend. And pools have been plain wrong in most British campaigns recently. A Labour majority seems unlikely at present but as regards Remain - the biggest obstacle to that is the fact that more than 50% of people in Britain want to leave the EU. Which is a bit of a problem. Jeremy Corbyn's fault obviously....

five points

Quote from: Jeepers Creepers on December 09, 2019, 12:41:58 PM
There are alot of people who do not read from credible media sources (few left) to see all poitical lies exposed. They take exactly at face value what they read on the dominant Tory backed papers. So it doesn't matter how many twitter campaigns there are highlighting all lies and injustices...

The circulations of the major newspapers in Britain are falling like a stone.

Tony Baloney

Quote from: magpie seanie on December 09, 2019, 12:55:02 PM
Quote from: yellowcard on December 09, 2019, 12:34:10 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on December 09, 2019, 10:51:56 AM
It's Miracle of Istanbul territory now, everything has to fall into place perfectly for Labour to merely achieve a hung parliament- the best way to achieve a 2nd Referendum. Tactical voting has to be perfect, the margins of errors in the polls have to fall their way, the Brexit party taking Labour votes in targeted seats has to be ineffective, turnout because of weather / the season has to be in their favour, the youth vote has to fall favourably over targeted constituencies. That's a lot of variables that have to go their way

Based on that latest poll where the Tories have regained ground despite their campaign based on a basic slogan and no substance, it is depressing to think that a UK electorate would mandate a far right Tory party with a workable majority back into government. What does it tell you about modern society and the UK electorate though? The Tories fought a campaign on a basic message of 'getting Brexit done' and it looks as though it has worked. Barring a miracle it appears as though the Tories will get back in with a majority to do as they see fit. Given the make up of this next cabinet with carte blanche to do whatever they want, I wouldn't even rule out a no deal Brexit at this point.

Why so down over one poll which seems to be an outlier in the recent trend. And pools have been plain wrong in most British campaigns recently. A Labour majority seems unlikely at present but as regards Remain - the biggest obstacle to that is the fact that in 2016 more than 50% of people in Britain wanted to leave the EU. Which is a bit of a problem. Jeremy Corbyn's fault obviously....
Who knows what the percentage is now? A more popular Labour leader would significantly close the gap on, if not overhaul, any Conservative lead in the polls. He's simply not a popular option amongst floating voters. BJ DEFINITELY isn't either so it's rock and a hard place territory for those voters.

yellowcard

Quote from: magpie seanie on December 09, 2019, 12:55:02 PM
Quote from: yellowcard on December 09, 2019, 12:34:10 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on December 09, 2019, 10:51:56 AM
It's Miracle of Istanbul territory now, everything has to fall into place perfectly for Labour to merely achieve a hung parliament- the best way to achieve a 2nd Referendum. Tactical voting has to be perfect, the margins of errors in the polls have to fall their way, the Brexit party taking Labour votes in targeted seats has to be ineffective, turnout because of weather / the season has to be in their favour, the youth vote has to fall favourably over targeted constituencies. That's a lot of variables that have to go their way

Based on that latest poll where the Tories have regained ground despite their campaign based on a basic slogan and no substance, it is depressing to think that a UK electorate would mandate a far right Tory party with a workable majority back into government. What does it tell you about modern society and the UK electorate though? The Tories fought a campaign on a basic message of 'getting Brexit done' and it looks as though it has worked. Barring a miracle it appears as though the Tories will get back in with a majority to do as they see fit. Given the make up of this next cabinet with carte blanche to do whatever they want, I wouldn't even rule out a no deal Brexit at this point.

Why so down over one poll which seems to be an outlier in the recent trend.
And pools have been plain wrong in most British campaigns recently. A Labour majority seems unlikely at present but as regards Remain - the biggest obstacle to that is the fact that more than 50% of people in Britain want to leave the EU. Which is a bit of a problem. Jeremy Corbyn's fault obviously....

It's the fact that it is days out from the election when Labour should have really gained ground by now. Instead they have lost ground if the poll is to be taken at face value.

Labour were never going to get a majority anyway, the best that they could hope for was a hung parliament with a coalition between themselves and SNP. That now appears unlikely though unless there is a dramatic turnaround in the last few days. All based on the preface that the polls are indeed accurate.

seafoid

Quote from: Jeepers Creepers on December 09, 2019, 12:41:58 PM
There are alot of people who do not read from credible media sources (few left) to see all poitical lies exposed. They take exactly at face value what they read on the dominant Tory backed papers. So it doesn't matter how many twitter campaigns there are highlighting all lies and injustices...
Newspaper sales now are a lot lower than before.
Young people get their news from social media where the Tories are weaker
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

bennydorano

One if the major problems is that for every individual that really thinks about their options, votes tactically there are 10 people who will lap up for any old shite.

playwiththewind1st

Quote from: bennydorano on December 09, 2019, 02:22:23 PM
One if the major problems is that for every individual that really thinks about their options, votes tactically there are 10 people who will lap up for any old shite.

See these Greeks & their fancy ideas, eh? Unfortunately, they didn't leave us a mechanism for disenfranchising the intellectually enfeebled, when they laid down their principles of democracy. A big oversight.

Jeepers Creepers

Quote from: seafoid on December 09, 2019, 02:17:34 PM
Quote from: Jeepers Creepers on December 09, 2019, 12:41:58 PM
There are alot of people who do not read from credible media sources (few left) to see all poitical lies exposed. They take exactly at face value what they read on the dominant Tory backed papers. So it doesn't matter how many twitter campaigns there are highlighting all lies and injustices...
Newspaper sales now are a lot lower than before.
Young people get their news from social media where the Tories are weaker
My point being young people and social media will not get Labour into power. You dont have to buy a paper, the headlines on most of the red tops (with their anti-labour Bias) you see standing in line at the shop are enough to persude the average Joe who does not sit on twitter all day to vote for the Torys.

Walter Cronc

Quote from: yellowcard on December 09, 2019, 01:49:49 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on December 09, 2019, 12:55:02 PM
Quote from: yellowcard on December 09, 2019, 12:34:10 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on December 09, 2019, 10:51:56 AM
It's Miracle of Istanbul territory now, everything has to fall into place perfectly for Labour to merely achieve a hung parliament- the best way to achieve a 2nd Referendum. Tactical voting has to be perfect, the margins of errors in the polls have to fall their way, the Brexit party taking Labour votes in targeted seats has to be ineffective, turnout because of weather / the season has to be in their favour, the youth vote has to fall favourably over targeted constituencies. That's a lot of variables that have to go their way

Based on that latest poll where the Tories have regained ground despite their campaign based on a basic slogan and no substance, it is depressing to think that a UK electorate would mandate a far right Tory party with a workable majority back into government. What does it tell you about modern society and the UK electorate though? The Tories fought a campaign on a basic message of 'getting Brexit done' and it looks as though it has worked. Barring a miracle it appears as though the Tories will get back in with a majority to do as they see fit. Given the make up of this next cabinet with carte blanche to do whatever they want, I wouldn't even rule out a no deal Brexit at this point.

Why so down over one poll which seems to be an outlier in the recent trend.
And pools have been plain wrong in most British campaigns recently. A Labour majority seems unlikely at present but as regards Remain - the biggest obstacle to that is the fact that more than 50% of people in Britain want to leave the EU. Which is a bit of a problem. Jeremy Corbyn's fault obviously....

It's the fact that it is days out from the election when Labour should have really gained ground by now. Instead they have lost ground if the poll is to be taken at face value.

Labour were never going to get a majority anyway, the best that they could hope for was a hung parliament with a coalition between themselves and SNP. That now appears unlikely though unless there is a dramatic turnaround in the last few days. All based on the preface that the polls are indeed accurate.

It tells me a good half of the Brits are horrible racist f*cks. Its only a few centuries ago the savaged half the world so its in them somewhere!

bennydorano

Quote from: playwiththewind1st on December 09, 2019, 02:44:27 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on December 09, 2019, 02:22:23 PM
One if the major problems is that for every individual that really thinks about their options, votes tactically there are 10 people who will lap up for any old shite.

See these Greeks & their fancy ideas, eh? Unfortunately, they didn't leave us a mechanism for disenfranchising the intellectually enfeebled, when they laid down their principles of democracy. A big oversight.

Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.
HL Mencken