The next recession

[Silver hill]

The recession is not arriving in the 26 counties just yet. The unemployment rate has just fallen to its lowest level in 21 years in July at just 4.2pc and government revenue this July is up 19% on last year, a lot of this is corporation tax but income tax and vat are up also. No doubt there are people feeling some issues with price rises, but by historical standards these are the good times.

Get SF in quick to sort that out

That obsession is going to eat you up.

[APM]

The recession is not arriving in the 26 counties just yet. The unemployment rate has just fallen to its lowest level in 21 years in July at just 4.2pc and government revenue this July is up 19% on last year, a lot of this is corporation tax but income tax and vat are up also. No doubt there are people feeling some issues with price rises, but by historical standards these are the good times.

Inflation is the big problem! And in general, the cure for inflation involves recession and unemployment.  This is a global issue and the 26 will not be immune.

Should be added, the disruption of Brexit means that the UK is more exposed. 

[Milltown Row2]

The recession is not arriving in the 26 counties just yet. The unemployment rate has just fallen to its lowest level in 21 years in July at just 4.2pc and government revenue this July is up 19% on last year, a lot of this is corporation tax but income tax and vat are up also. No doubt there are people feeling some issues with price rises, but by historical standards these are the good times.

Inflation is the big problem! And in general, the cure for inflation involves recession and unemployment.  This is a global issue and the 26 will not be immune.

Should be added, the disruption of Brexit means that the UK is more exposed.

2.3%
The unemployment rate in Northern Ireland fell back to its record low in the first quarter of this year, official figures suggest. The rate in the period January to March was 2.3%, a statistically significant fall of 1.2 percentage points over the year.

I'd have thought unemployment has fallen in most places? There are loads of jobs available

[APM]

The recession is not arriving in the 26 counties just yet. The unemployment rate has just fallen to its lowest level in 21 years in July at just 4.2pc and government revenue this July is up 19% on last year, a lot of this is corporation tax but income tax and vat are up also. No doubt there are people feeling some issues with price rises, but by historical standards these are the good times.

Inflation is the big problem! And in general, the cure for inflation involves recession and unemployment.  This is a global issue and the 26 will not be immune.

Should be added, the disruption of Brexit means that the UK is more exposed.

2.3%
The unemployment rate in Northern Ireland fell back to its record low in the first quarter of this year, official figures suggest. The rate in the period January to March was 2.3%, a statistically significant fall of 1.2 percentage points over the year.

I'd have thought unemployment has fallen in most places? There are loads of jobs available

Unemployment is very low.  We are almost at full-employment and in general, have been for the last few years and businesses across Western Europe and the West in general have been struggling with labour shortages, even before Covid.  Economies have been over-heating for some time and inflation has been building in the background as a result.  Don't think this is going to be pretty.   

[Kidder81]

The recession is not arriving in the 26 counties just yet. The unemployment rate has just fallen to its lowest level in 21 years in July at just 4.2pc and government revenue this July is up 19% on last year, a lot of this is corporation tax but income tax and vat are up also. No doubt there are people feeling some issues with price rises, but by historical standards these are the good times.

Inflation is the big problem! And in general, the cure for inflation involves recession and unemployment.  This is a global issue and the 26 will not be immune.

Should be added, the disruption of Brexit means that the UK is more exposed.

2.3%
The unemployment rate in Northern Ireland fell back to its record low in the first quarter of this year, official figures suggest. The rate in the period January to March was 2.3%, a statistically significant fall of 1.2 percentage points over the year.

I'd have thought unemployment has fallen in most places? There are loads of jobs available

Still plenty of “economically inactive” here in the 6 counties, those that aren’t looking for work for various reasons

[armaghniac]

Inflation is the big problem! And in general, the cure for inflation involves recession and unemployment.  This is a global issue and the 26 will not be immune.

Should be added, the disruption of Brexit means that the UK is more exposed.

I don't think the 26 will be unaffected, although I think that its mix of industries will reduce the damage.  However, I am old enough to remember when inflation was greater than 10% and unemployment was also greater than 10%.

[Milltown Row2]

The recession is not arriving in the 26 counties just yet. The unemployment rate has just fallen to its lowest level in 21 years in July at just 4.2pc and government revenue this July is up 19% on last year, a lot of this is corporation tax but income tax and vat are up also. No doubt there are people feeling some issues with price rises, but by historical standards these are the good times.

Inflation is the big problem! And in general, the cure for inflation involves recession and unemployment.  This is a global issue and the 26 will not be immune.

Should be added, the disruption of Brexit means that the UK is more exposed.

2.3%
The unemployment rate in Northern Ireland fell back to its record low in the first quarter of this year, official figures suggest. The rate in the period January to March was 2.3%, a statistically significant fall of 1.2 percentage points over the year.

I'd have thought unemployment has fallen in most places? There are loads of jobs available

Still plenty of “economically inactive” here in the 6 counties, those that aren’t looking for work for various reasons

Of course and if you are giving people a lifestyle that means they are comfortable for their needs then why would they work, its not helped by minimum wages being as they or zero hour contracts are, this is not allowing people to get a work culture or ethic

[seafoid]

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/northern-ireland/is-northern-ireland-heading-for-a-recession-leading-economist-has-his-say-as-cost-of-living-crisis-grips-41885204.html

[marty34]

The recession is not arriving in the 26 counties just yet. The unemployment rate has just fallen to its lowest level in 21 years in July at just 4.2pc and government revenue this July is up 19% on last year, a lot of this is corporation tax but income tax and vat are up also. No doubt there are people feeling some issues with price rises, but by historical standards these are the good times.

Inflation is the big problem! And in general, the cure for inflation involves recession and unemployment.  This is a global issue and the 26 will not be immune.

Should be added, the disruption of Brexit means that the UK is more exposed.

2.3%
The unemployment rate in Northern Ireland fell back to its record low in the first quarter of this year, official figures suggest. The rate in the period January to March was 2.3%, a statistically significant fall of 1.2 percentage points over the year.

I'd have thought unemployment has fallen in most places? There are loads of jobs available

Unemployment is very low.  We are almost at full-employment and in general, have been for the last few years and businesses across Western Europe and the West in general have been struggling with labour shortages, even before Covid.  Economies have been over-heating for some time and inflation has been building in the background as a result.  Don't think this is going to be pretty.

Yeah BOE boss getting a bit of grief now.

People saying they left it too late pushing up the interest rates.

Funny enough, there was 1 person in their BOE monetary group who voted not to put the rates up.

[seafoid]

Maybe Britain excludes OWC. I suppose if it did the DUP would complain. It would prefer economic carnage under the Brits than productivity growth and payrises in Ireland

https://www.ft.com/content/571dbb52-971f-49e5-9159-3bc73b497742



Britain faces a protracted recession and the worst squeeze in living standards in more than 60 years after the Bank of England raised interest rates sharply and forecast inflation would hit 13 per cent by the end of the year. The Bank’s nine-member Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to raise interest rates by 0.5 percentage points to 1.75 per cent on Thursday, the biggest increase in 27 years.

[johnnycool]

I'm no economist, but the current rise in inflation, is it not being driven by supply chain issues (Brexit/Russian Oil/Gas) and Corporate greed rather than too much spending and not enough demand?

Raising the interest rates will have a huge impact on those with mortgages and may already feel squeezed by the prices of everything else going up and could lead to a lot of defaulting!

I struggle to see how that is going to reduce inflation.

[Kidder81]

I'm no economist, but the current rise in inflation, is it not being driven by supply chain issues (Brexit/Russian Oil/Gas) and Corporate greed rather than too much spending and not enough demand?

Raising the interest rates will have a huge impact on those with mortgages and may already feel squeezed by the prices of everything else going up and could lead to a lot of defaulting!

I struggle to see how that is going to reduce inflation.

Are most people not on fixed rate mortgages ?

[quit yo jibbajabba]

A lot arent. Thousands.

And those fixed rates come to an end and the new rates will be much higher..

[marty34]

I'm no economist, but the current rise in inflation, is it not being driven by supply chain issues (Brexit/Russian Oil/Gas) and Corporate greed rather than too much spending and not enough demand?

Raising the interest rates will have a huge impact on those with mortgages and may already feel squeezed by the prices of everything else going up and could lead to a lot of defaulting!

I struggle to see how that is going to reduce inflation.

I'd say interest rates will go up next month again and for a few months at a steady pace.

I wonder how high they'll go up?

[APM]

I'm no economist, but the current rise in inflation, is it not being driven by supply chain issues (Brexit/Russian Oil/Gas) and Corporate greed rather than too much spending and not enough demand?

Raising the interest rates will have a huge impact on those with mortgages and may already feel squeezed by the prices of everything else going up and could lead to a lot of defaulting!

I struggle to see how that is going to reduce inflation.

Supply chains are part of the issue.

Another big factor is QE:
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/quantitative-easing