Brexit.

[muppet]

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36625209

Historian and constitutional expert Lord Peter Hennessy looks back at British history to evaluate the significance of the referendum result. The Attlee Professor of Contemporary British History at Queen Mary University of London was speaking to the BBC's Diplomatic Correspondent James Robbins.

Never in our peacetime history have so many dials been reset as a result of a single day's events.

The only thing comparable in my lifetime is the end of the British Empire, which, like this, was a huge geopolitical shift. But getting rid of the British Empire was done over many, many years and by and large in the time control of the British government of the day. It left very few scars on us.

But this is sudden. This is guillotine time. This is quite extraordinary and in peacetime British history quite unprecedented.

If we go back to the beginning, it took three attempts for Britain to join the European project.

Harold Macmillan steered his cabinet towards the first application to join the European Economic Community in July 1961, an effort which failed because of opposition from French leader Charles De Gaulle.

During Harold Wilson's second application in 1967, The Labour prime minister said we wouldn't take 'no' for an answer and ended up getting exactly that again from General De Gaulle.

Ted Heath finally pulled it off with President Pompidou and the law was passed in 1972, leading to our admittance in January 1973.

Ever since then it's been part of the warp and woof of British foreign policy and our attitude towards the world. It's part of Britain's notion of its ability to punch heavier than its weight internationally, and it has been central to so many calculations.

That's why this vote is the most remarkable jolt to the system. Where it leads in terms of the psychology of British politics as well as the personnel of British politics and indeed the very survival of the United Kingdom as a union with Scotland is all up in the air.

There never has been a day when so many moving parts were thrown up in one go and nobody knows where they will fall.

We know one thing and one thing only - that within a few years we shall no longer be a member of the European Union.

We know so little else about how it will play out, both in terms of the emotional geography of our politics and the emotional geography of our people.

The referendum has revealed deeper fissures and deeper divisions than perhaps we realised were there.

We know we've been a country ill at ease with itself for a very long time, with all sorts of divides, including those based on geography and wealth.

But this process has thrown it into stark relief, and we're going to have to stand back and take a long and careful look at ourselves.

We will need to re-examine the kind of society we are and the kind of relationships we want in the world.

'US will be horrified'
Looking to our relationship with the United States, ever since the Marshall Plan brought the Western European countries together after the Second World War to put a dollar curtain up against the Iron Curtain of the Soviet Union, the US has wanted us to be a good European player.

They have also wanted us to be their number one friend. We were meant to be the hinge that joined the North Atlantic instinct with the European instinct.

For this reason they will be horrified by this result. Their notion of who we are and the special ingredients of our special position in the world will be as much affected as we are by this.

I suspect the feeling will be that they've got enough to worry about in the world with a resurgent Putin and Middle East in the state it is without their one dependable ally causing all this trouble.

They will see Britain - instead of being its usual force for stability in the world as a great and mature democracy - as a bringer of instability to Europe, and they won't like it one bit.

This result, on the other hand, is, of course, a victory for democracy. The greatest strength of any country is the degree to which it is an open society and this vote showed that on that index we excel.

The sovereign will of the British people is what has prevailed in producing this enormous geopolitical shift. So it's three cheers for democracy and for the 72.2% voter turnout rate.

While the consequences of it are very complicated, the will of the people will obviously have to be respected.

But, my heavens, it becomes a nitty gritty slog from now on. In particular, the long-term consequences for our place in the world are very considerable indeed.

In 2025, we will be out of the European Union and we could be shorn of Scotland. We will be a very different country.
I hope to heaven - because I love this country deeply - that it doesn't turn narrowly inward-looking and resentful.
That ain't what the British people are for.

[BennyCake]

Casement will never be built now 

Or Narrow Water bridge. They'll probably have enough money to build a 15ft wall around the border though.

[muppet]

http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/liverpool-sees-huge-remain-vote-11518353

I wonder how big an influence The Sun, which isn't bought by anyone on Merseyside, had in the Leave Vote?

[smelmoth]

Casement will never be built now 

Or Narrow Water bridge. They'll probably have enough money to build a 15ft wall around the border though.

The Casement development as proposed shouldn't go ahead. The Narrow Water bridge never stood a chance and the other bit is just shit talk

[seafoid]

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/brexit-democratic-failure-for-uk-by-kenneth-rogoff-2016-06

CAMBRIDGE – The real lunacy of the United Kingdom's vote to leave the European Union was not that British leaders dared to ask their populace to weigh the benefits of membership against the immigration pressures it presents. Rather, it was the absurdly low bar for exit, requiring only a simple majority. Given voter turnout of 70%, this meant that the leave campaign won with only 36% of eligible voters backing it.



Does the vote have to be repeated after a year to be sure? No. Does a majority in Parliament have to support Brexit? Apparently not. Did the UK's population really know what they were voting on? Absolutely not. Indeed, no one has any idea of the consequences, both for the UK in the global trading system, or the effect on domestic political stability. I am afraid it is not going to be a pretty picture.

Mind you, citizens of the West are blessed to live in a time of peace: changing circumstances and priorities can be addressed through democratic processes instead of foreign and civil wars. But what, exactly, is a fair, democratic process for making irreversible, nation-defining decisions? Is it really enough to get 52% to vote for breakup on a rainy day?

In terms of durability and conviction of preferences, most societies place greater hurdles in the way of a couple seeking a divorce than Prime Minister David Cameron's government did on the decision to leave the EU. Brexiteers did not invent this game; there is ample precedent, including Scotland in 2014 and Quebec in 1995. But, until now, the gun's cylinder never stopped on the bullet. Now that it has, it is time to rethink the rules of the game.



The idea that somehow any decision reached anytime by majority rule is necessarily "democratic" is a perversion of the term. Modern democracies have evolved systems of checks and balances to protect the interests of minorities and to avoid making uninformed decisions with catastrophic consequences. The greater and more lasting the decision, the higher the hurdles.

[muppet]

The Leave campaign is in complete disarray:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-negotiations-eu-referendum-live-delay-holiday-matthew-elliott-vote-leave-a7105661.html

Brexit negotiations should not go ahead straight away so people can go away "on holiday" before they start, the chief of Vote Leave has said.

Matthew Elliot, the chief executive of the official campaign to leave the EU, said there should be a pause before negotiations took place in part so that people could go away for the summer.

Brussels officials and the leaders of other EU countries have urged Britain to start Brexit negotiations straight away in order to limit the extent of any damaging transition period.

[muppet]

Here is the infamous Article 50. Amazingly there are only 250 words in it.

http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-European-union-and-comments/title-6-final-provisions/137-article-50.html

Article 50


1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

[seafoid]

The Leave campaign is in complete disarray:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-negotiations-eu-referendum-live-delay-holiday-matthew-elliott-vote-leave-a7105661.html

Brexit negotiations should not go ahead straight away so people can go away "on holiday" before they start, the chief of Vote Leave has said.

Matthew Elliot, the chief executive of the official campaign to leave the EU, said there should be a pause before negotiations took place in part so that people could go away for the summer.

Brussels officials and the leaders of other EU countries have urged Britain to start Brexit negotiations straight away in order to limit the extent of any damaging transition period.

Leave reminds me of a fabulous party where someone dies , usually in the pool
They just wanted to piss off Cameron. They don't know what to do now.

He didn't want any attack ads on fellow Tories in case it would damage the Tory party
He was planning a process to reunite and heal the Tories.

Nobody wanted sterling to fall to USD 1.30 or for banks to start moving jobs out of the City   
It is a dreadful mistake

Bojo is a spoofer
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/26/i-cannot-stress-too-much-that-britain-is-part-of-europe--and-alw/

[dferg]

I blame Geldof and would probably agree with Michael Heaver on his assessment.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/owen-bennett/bob-geldof-nigel-farage-brexit-flotilla_b_10481804.html

He looked like a character from Alice in Wonderland with his stupid looking hat, sitting on what looked like a throne shouting into a loud hailer.  He is not even british ffs.

The remain campaign was terrible in general.  Wheeling out Tony Blair, Geldof etc.  It gave rain 1 day and I  was half expecting the weather forecaster to say if you vote leave it will rain every day.

If remain had stuck to numbers, on how it would affect the economy and less on gimmicks and general BS they would have come across as more genuine and stood a better chance.

[BennyCake]

Casement will never be built now 

Or Narrow Water bridge. They'll probably have enough money to build a 15ft wall around the border though.

The Casement development as proposed shouldn't go ahead. The Narrow Water bridge never stood a chance and the other bit is just shit talk

No flies on you 

[vallankumous]

Here is the infamous Article 50. Amazingly there are only 250 words in it.

http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-European-union-and-comments/title-6-final-provisions/137-article-50.html

Article 50


1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

Here's the escape route.

[seafoid]

Here is the infamous Article 50. Amazingly there are only 250 words in it.

http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-European-union-and-comments/title-6-final-provisions/137-article-50.html

Article 50


1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

There are loads of laws that have to be untangled
The devolved areas all have legal setups that assume EU membership
The GFA does too
The Leavers are all over the place.

[muppet]

Here is the infamous Article 50. Amazingly there are only 250 words in it.

http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-European-union-and-comments/title-6-final-provisions/137-article-50.html

Article 50


1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

Here's the escape route.

I admire your optimism.

But history and experience teaches me to guess otherwise.

[vallankumous]

I admire your optimism.

But history and experience teaches me to guess otherwise.

The only thing I know from History is that the levers of power are hard to walk away from and that Tyrone drew in 95.

[Applesisapples]

I can't understand the DUP. The mock SF as being economically illiterate. They support Brexit which will see the end of the net contribution from Europe to NI with absolutely no idea how that funding can be replaced. They think that an English Government which will be managing Brexit in order to deliver savings is going to hand over this cash instead of investing it in their own country and to benefit their own voters. To cap all of this they believe that having saved the European money, no-one in England is going to question the continued subvention for NI. Not only that if as is likely Brexit results in Scottish Independence the Barnett formula comes in to sharp focus and I'd say NI's share won't be increased!