Brexit.

Started by T Fearon, November 01, 2015, 06:04:06 PM

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johnnycool

Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on December 13, 2018, 10:36:09 AM
Quote from: bennydorano on December 13, 2018, 09:45:08 AM
Sort of missing the point that Customs for goods don't have to be conducted at the border itself at all.

What world is that your in?

So how do you stop cattle being smuggled across the border on the back of a lorry?

Cattle raised in (say) Armagh taken across to (say) Monaghan - retagged as local cattle and put into the EU food chain.

Are Customs gonna have helicopters and drones watching every farmyard and tracing lorries that drive up and down the road with proverbial SWAT teams cruising around in white transit vans ready to swoop and catch everyone loading/unloading the livestock?

If they ask the farmer after the event - "Ah, just buying a rake of straw bales from a man up the road - no import duty on straw bales there fella".

Not sure how Animals are tracked in the South but there's two issues with that scenario if they follow the same processes as Northern farmers and I think they do.

1- How will the farmer in Armagh explain to local officials where those animals have gone without the proper paperwork?
2- How will the farmer in Monaghan explain to the Abattoir (or whoever if selling on) where the paperwork will be checked and suddenly produce tags for animals out of fresh air.

It probably can be done but isn't as simple as it seems.

trailer

Quote from: johnnycool on December 13, 2018, 11:24:07 AM
Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on December 13, 2018, 10:36:09 AM
Quote from: bennydorano on December 13, 2018, 09:45:08 AM
Sort of missing the point that Customs for goods don't have to be conducted at the border itself at all.

What world is that your in?

So how do you stop cattle being smuggled across the border on the back of a lorry?

Cattle raised in (say) Armagh taken across to (say) Monaghan - retagged as local cattle and put into the EU food chain.

Are Customs gonna have helicopters and drones watching every farmyard and tracing lorries that drive up and down the road with proverbial SWAT teams cruising around in white transit vans ready to swoop and catch everyone loading/unloading the livestock?

If they ask the farmer after the event - "Ah, just buying a rake of straw bales from a man up the road - no import duty on straw bales there fella".

Not sure how Animals are tracked in the South but there's two issues with that scenario if they follow the same processes as Northern farmers and I think they do.

1- How will the farmer in Armagh explain to local officials where those animals have gone without the proper paperwork?
2- How will the farmer in Monaghan explain to the Abattoir (or whoever if selling on) where the paperwork will be checked and suddenly produce tags for animals out of fresh air.

It probably can be done but isn't as simple as it seems.

It's very tricky. You need tags ready to go into the animals. You need a way of writing off the tags out of the original herd. It's doable. It happens, but not on any great scale.
Animals are all tracked the same way. Right across Europe. Why? Because of an EU Directive. So if you go to Romania, Poland, Ireland, Netherlands, Spain France etc,etc,etc they all have ear tags, indicating country of origin, herd number and animal number. Handy the old EU in that instance.

johnnycool

Peston reckons Nige and the DUP are giving Teasie a way out of this impasse;

"Politics is all about words, which only sometimes mean what they seem to say.

So if you took what the DUP leader in Westminster said on my show last night you would think that just maybe there is a route through the current parliamentary chaos for the PM towards a Brexit deal that MPs could approve.

The DUP's Nigel Dodds told me:

"Well I think that the Prime Minister if I may say so maybe is extending a bit of an olive branch to us in the sense that she is now sitting down with us, acknowledging that we have an issue, acknowledging that it's not just an issue we have but many in her party are now saying that she's listening and she's now prepared to go out she says to get those legal changes that are necessary."

The mots justes in what Dodds said are "legal changes".

Following a meeting he had with her, he thinks she will try to secure legally binding changes to the Ireland backstop so that either it does not drive a regulatory wedge between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, or it is strictly time limited or there is a break clause unilaterally exercisable by the UK.

And the PM seemed to confirm that offer when she said last night on the steps of Downing Street that "when I go to the European Council tomorrow I will be seeking legal and political assurances".

How likely is the PM to secure any of that from EU leaders in Brussels, where she (and I) are heading today?

The answer is that if Dodds and his colleagues continue to be purists about all of this, there is not the remotest chance. Because, as Dodds has previously said to me, only changes to the so-called Withdrawal Agreement would deliver absolute legal certainty. And the draft conclusions to the EU Council where May is a supplicant already say the Withdrawal Agreement will not be altered.

So the question is whether after EU27 leaders sign up to some kind of codicil or addendum that says the backstop cannot be forever, which they will do, and when there is an accompanying opinion that the addendum has legal significance, which again there will be, Dodds and his colleagues suddenly announce they have achieved a great victory.

Will they - to avert a total impasse that could lead to a brutally hard Brexit, or no Brexit or a general election - pander at last to a constructive ambiguity for which the EU is rightly and widely celebrated?

Or will they continue to shout that the union of Northern Ireland and Great Britain is being betrayed?

For Theresa May pretty much everything hinges on how and where Dodds and the overall leader of his party Arlene Foster jump - especially after 117 of May's MP colleagues voted yesterday to get rid of her.

The reason is that the DUP's opposition to her Brexit plan provides cover and substantial justification for Tory Brexiter MPs who also hate the plan.

If the DUP is brought round, the PM won't be home and dry. But the idea of some version of her Brexit plan EVENTUALLY being approved by MPs would not be as laughably absurd as it seemed only yesterday.

To be clear, I am not saying that today in Brussels the PM will get a concession from EU leaders that solves all her problems. But what she is attempting is no longer Mission Impossible, even if it remains Mission Improbable."

north_antrim_hound

Quote from: johnnycool on December 13, 2018, 11:30:58 AM
Peston reckons Nige and the DUP are giving Teasie a way out of this impasse;

"Politics is all about words, which only sometimes mean what they seem to say.

So if you took what the DUP leader in Westminster said on my show last night you would think that just maybe there is a route through the current parliamentary chaos for the PM towards a Brexit deal that MPs could approve.

The DUP's Nigel Dodds told me:

"Well I think that the Prime Minister if I may say so maybe is extending a bit of an olive branch to us in the sense that she is now sitting down with us, acknowledging that we have an issue, acknowledging that it's not just an issue we have but many in her party are now saying that she's listening and she's now prepared to go out she says to get those legal changes that are necessary."

The mots justes in what Dodds said are "legal changes".

Following a meeting he had with her, he thinks she will try to secure legally binding changes to the Ireland backstop so that either it does not drive a regulatory wedge between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, or it is strictly time limited or there is a break clause unilaterally exercisable by the UK.

And the PM seemed to confirm that offer when she said last night on the steps of Downing Street that "when I go to the European Council tomorrow I will be seeking legal and political assurances".

How likely is the PM to secure any of that from EU leaders in Brussels, where she (and I) are heading today?

The answer is that if Dodds and his colleagues continue to be purists about all of this, there is not the remotest chance. Because, as Dodds has previously said to me, only changes to the so-called Withdrawal Agreement would deliver absolute legal certainty. And the draft conclusions to the EU Council where May is a supplicant already say the Withdrawal Agreement will not be altered.

So the question is whether after EU27 leaders sign up to some kind of codicil or addendum that says the backstop cannot be forever, which they will do, and when there is an accompanying opinion that the addendum has legal significance, which again there will be, Dodds and his colleagues suddenly announce they have achieved a great victory.

Will they - to avert a total impasse that could lead to a brutally hard Brexit, or no Brexit or a general election - pander at last to a constructive ambiguity for which the EU is rightly and widely celebrated?

Or will they continue to shout that the union of Northern Ireland and Great Britain is being betrayed?

For Theresa May pretty much everything hinges on how and where Dodds and the overall leader of his party Arlene Foster jump - especially after 117 of May's MP colleagues voted yesterday to get rid of her.

The reason is that the DUP's opposition to her Brexit plan provides cover and substantial justification for Tory Brexiter MPs who also hate the plan.

If the DUP is brought round, the PM won't be home and dry. But the idea of some version of her Brexit plan EVENTUALLY being approved by MPs would not be as laughably absurd as it seemed only yesterday.

To be clear, I am not saying that today in Brussels the PM will get a concession from EU leaders that solves all her problems. But what she is attempting is no longer Mission Impossible, even if it remains Mission Improbable."

It's the DUP so for all their dogmatic totalitarianism they have a price and can be bought. A holiday in the Maldives might not swing it and if something does go down we might not know about it but I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of the older ones like Dodds caving in and ending up in the House of Lords. The only thing holding this up is the in house bitching of the opposition for political gain at the expense of the best achievable deal.
I read this morning that FF in the south has delayed any calls for an election due to the current Brexit negotiations and the extra turmoil it might induce. The southern government and the opposition has made Westminster look like very immature during this whole process.
There's a man with a mullet going mad with a mallet in Millets

Harold Disgracey


Rossfan

Westminster has done a good job of appearing immature all by themselves ;D
As one Scottish MP put it " a farcical day in Westminster ended with a woman with a sword chasing after a man who stole a stick".
And some want the Shinners to sit among more than 600 eejits there :o
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

RadioGAAGAA

Quote from: johnnycool on December 13, 2018, 11:24:07 AM
It probably can be done but isn't as simple as it seems.

OK - replace cattle with veal and have another go. Fairly easy for the animal to never have existed on one side of the border and twins to be on the other side.

Unless the authorities go for expensive DNA testing then without stopping the transfer between farms or from farm to slaughterhouse then they'll have difficulty proving much.
i usse an speelchekor

trailer

Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on December 13, 2018, 11:58:29 AM
Quote from: johnnycool on December 13, 2018, 11:24:07 AM
It probably can be done but isn't as simple as it seems.

OK - replace cattle with veal and have another go. Fairly easy for the animal to never have existed on one side of the border and twins to be on the other side.

Unless the authorities go for expensive DNA testing then without stopping the transfer between farms or from farm to slaughterhouse then they'll have difficulty proving much.

I understand the point you're trying to make, but the livestock example isn't the correct one.
Milk would be a better example. With the introduction of tariffs in the event of WTO exit I could see this product being smuggled.

sid waddell

#5693
Quote from: seafoid on December 13, 2018, 06:53:03 AM
Quote from: sid waddell on December 12, 2018, 10:26:02 PM
Quote from: dec on December 12, 2018, 09:46:14 PM
Quote from: screenexile on December 12, 2018, 09:10:59 PM
peoples vote is the only way to get a consensus on this!

There was a peoples vote.

That's what got us into this mess in the first place.
It is.

It should never, ever have been held.

But conversely, another one is the only real chance of getting out of the mess caused by the first one.

The ref vote was about an idea with no detail and it was supported enthusiastically by most of post industrial N and Mid England.
These people have been shafted for over a generation.

The UK can have a people's vote but unless it deals with the despair behind the leave vote the chaos will continue

A popular vote won't put the genie back in the bottle

https://mobile.twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1071013456948707328
It won't but it at least offers a way out of the mess.

What else does?

The genie should never have been let out of the bottle.

The UK system is inherently unsuited to referendums, especially a referendum between the status quo and unicorns in the sky.

To be honest, the UK electoral system is a total shambles. First past the post and single seat constituencies are an abomination. The UK political system is scarily similar to the US system in that first past the post leads to polarisation. It dismisses nuance and dismisses a large swathe of public opinion by offering only a binary choice.

What has happened in the Tory party is very similar to what has happened in the US Republican party. The lunatics have taken over the asylum. That would likely not have happened in a PR system as the lunatics would have been in a different party.

For all its faults, the Irish electoral system is far superior.

Rossfan

Our lunatics keep setting up new parties which usually vanish after few years.
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

JPGJOHNNYG

Quote from: sid waddell on December 13, 2018, 12:27:54 PM
Quote from: seafoid on December 13, 2018, 06:53:03 AM
Quote from: sid waddell on December 12, 2018, 10:26:02 PM
Quote from: dec on December 12, 2018, 09:46:14 PM
Quote from: screenexile on December 12, 2018, 09:10:59 PM
peoples vote is the only way to get a consensus on this!

There was a peoples vote.

That's what got us into this mess in the first place.
It is.

It should never, ever have been held.

But conversely, another one is the only real chance of getting out of the mess caused by the first one.

The ref vote was about an idea with no detail and it was supported enthusiastically by most of post industrial N and Mid England.
These people have been shafted for over a generation.

The UK can have a people's vote but unless it deals with the despair behind the leave vote the chaos will continue

A popular vote won't put the genie back in the bottle

https://mobile.twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1071013456948707328
It won't but it at least offers a way out of the mess.

What else does?

The genie should never have been let out of the bottle.

The UK system is inherently unsuited to referendums, especially a referendum between the status quo and unicorns in the sky.

To be honest, the UK electoral system is a total shambles. First past the post and single seat constituencies are an abomination. The UK political system is scarily similar to the US system in that first past the post leads to polarisation. It dismisses nuance and dismisses a large swathe of public opinion by offering only a binary choice.

What has happened in the Tory party is very similar to what has happened in the US Republican party. The lunatics have taken over the asylum. That would likely not have happened in a PR system as the lunatics would have been in a different party.

For all its faults, the Irish electoral system is far superior.

The main advantage of the FPTP system is to keep the likes of the BNP out of the commons but when you have Tories then happily going into power with the DUP and all their baggage it makes you wonder.

RadioGAAGAA

Quote from: trailer on December 13, 2018, 12:25:10 PM
I understand the point you're trying to make, but the livestock example isn't the correct one.
Milk would be a better example. With the introduction of tariffs in the event of WTO exit I could see this product being smuggled.

Yep - milk is a better example - no way to DNA test it. Completely untraceable.

i usse an speelchekor

sid waddell

Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on December 13, 2018, 02:02:33 PM
Quote from: sid waddell on December 13, 2018, 12:27:54 PM
Quote from: seafoid on December 13, 2018, 06:53:03 AM
Quote from: sid waddell on December 12, 2018, 10:26:02 PM
Quote from: dec on December 12, 2018, 09:46:14 PM
Quote from: screenexile on December 12, 2018, 09:10:59 PM
peoples vote is the only way to get a consensus on this!

There was a peoples vote.

That's what got us into this mess in the first place.
It is.

It should never, ever have been held.

But conversely, another one is the only real chance of getting out of the mess caused by the first one.

The ref vote was about an idea with no detail and it was supported enthusiastically by most of post industrial N and Mid England.
These people have been shafted for over a generation.

The UK can have a people's vote but unless it deals with the despair behind the leave vote the chaos will continue

A popular vote won't put the genie back in the bottle

https://mobile.twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1071013456948707328
It won't but it at least offers a way out of the mess.

What else does?

The genie should never have been let out of the bottle.

The UK system is inherently unsuited to referendums, especially a referendum between the status quo and unicorns in the sky.

To be honest, the UK electoral system is a total shambles. First past the post and single seat constituencies are an abomination. The UK political system is scarily similar to the US system in that first past the post leads to polarisation. It dismisses nuance and dismisses a large swathe of public opinion by offering only a binary choice.

What has happened in the Tory party is very similar to what has happened in the US Republican party. The lunatics have taken over the asylum. That would likely not have happened in a PR system as the lunatics would have been in a different party.

For all its faults, the Irish electoral system is far superior.

The main advantage of the FPTP system is to keep the likes of the BNP out of the commons but when you have Tories then happily going into power with the DUP and all their baggage it makes you wonder.

The first past the post system has let the anti-Europe crazies set the agenda in the Tory party for the last 30 years.

With PR, they'd have been marginalised.

The UK does not have a written constitution. Parliament has always been where things are decided. Therefore any referendums are not constitutional, they are only advisory. The introduction of referendums created a parallel system for decision making which is in conflict with parliament. One of the few people to actually recognise this and warn against it was Margaret Thatcher.

Ireland has a written constitution. Our referendums are always constitutional, we've never held one that wasn't constitutional. The questions and competing outcomes are always defined. We know how to hold referendums.

Britain held an advisory, non-constitutional referendum on a question where one outcome was completely undefined and pie in the sky.

Why? Because David Cameron appeased the crazies in order to get a majority for himself in parliament. He gambled in the most irresponsible fashion with the futures of the people of Britain.

I don't rate May as Prime Minister. But hapless and incompetent as she may be, she's nowhere near Cameron on the list of worst Prime Ministers of all time.

There's a special dunce's corner in history reserved for Cameron.

sid waddell

I'd warn as well that the Brexit referendum proves that the prospect of a unification referendum in the North is an extremely worrying one.

Such a poll should not be held unless and until opinion polls show a consistent, clear majority in favour of unification. A clear majority means minimum 55-45.

The threat to peace would be too great, and peace is much more important than a united Ireland.

A 51-49 majority in favour of unification would be a nightmarish prospect which would all but condemn the North to another outbreak of bloodshed.

haranguerer

Rubbish.

It may sound glib, but who are the loyalists going to fight? And to what end? Once we get to the stage where it has been passed, unionists will be well looked after, you can guarantee that.

And of course, 51/49 in the north would actually be 85/15 overall (those opposed in the south are extremely unlikely to be strongly and/or militantly so, so their 'against' votes aren't important in the context of your forecast bloodshed)