What is the most likely future of Northern Ireland ?

[seafoid]

At the risk of repeating myself:

A border poll, when it happens, will be the most seismic political event of our lifetimes. Nobody will be able to escape partaking in the debate once the referendum is called - least of all a political party. I don't think it's credible to think that a party will willingly sideline itself from involvement in the hottest political event in it's existence. If it is foolish enough to try sitting on the fence then it will be lambasted from every side, not just from one. In Britain, Labour tried to ride two horses at once with the Brexit referendum and made an embarrassment of themselves. For now, Alliance can sit on the fence today and insist that they are not concerned with hypothetical constitutional arrangements when the health/cost of living crises etc are what people want dealt with; which is well and good, but once a border poll is called then that excuse goes out the window. A referendum campaign when it happens, will be all people will be talking about and in such a climate, Alliance will be unable to pretend otherwise. Naomi Long already stated before at Féile and Phobail that in the event of a border poll, the party will campaign. She just wouldn't be drawn on what side they will campaign on.

EDIT

She's also said on twitter a number of times, that Alliance will take a side in the event of a referendum:
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055517213879427077
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055520603610980357
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1205491354232610816
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1198948527264677897
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1129417742711427074

Alliance and anyone who votes for them are unionists and for the status quo

they always have been 

not a chance do they promote a UI

an independent north maybe 

Any Alliance MLAs west of the Bann?

[Loughshore2022]

I consider it a curse to be born in Northern Ireland, particularly as a Catholic. As far as I am concerned the plantations changed Ulster forever, even if there is a unified Ireland that doesn't stop us having British loyalism as a big part of the areas culture. I used to get involved in online arguments about Northern Ireland but I stopped a few years ago for the sake of my mental health. The whole thing just enrages me, at this point I just have taken a step back and let the country unravel in its degeneracy.

In terms of elections, I haven't voted since 2017 or so. I can't vote Sinn Fein as I don't support their far left agenda, I will probably get banned if I explain that further so I won't.

[PMG1]

First things first before we can even dream of a UI or winning a UI vote serious work must be put in place to prepare the package of what a UI entails for pensions, health service, civil service workers etc. USA and Europe must be sounded out also with regards to what support they will give to ensure a smooth change over, and what incentives they can give to ensure extra and better employment etc. All this must be put together first and then that package must be used to sell a UI. In my opinion we will need 5% of Protestants (can't call them unionist's as if they were unionists they won't vote UI) to vote UI to get it over the line to allow for the small percentage of 'soft catholics' that won't give their vote.

I always thought that SF / SDLP we're missing out badly in not chasing the foreign workers vote here, surely there is 30/40,000 non nationals who are eligible to vote also (I may be wrong on this), getting these onside would make a massive difference and would almost certainly ensure victory. In my opinion the poll will take place in about 10 years time and if all work has been done before that then a UI is a very high possibility, it will take a further 6/7 years after that for the actual switchover, so we shouldn't be far away come 2040. Remember also that both Irish and UK economies and moving fairly quickly in opposite directions, brexit is really starting to bite in UK and the effects are only just starting, UK will be in poor shape in 5 years time and Irelands economy will keep improving (inevitable given the highly skilled workforce that exists down south). I may be dreaming a bit but I really believe I will live to see a UI

[trileacman]

I always thought that SF / SDLP we're missing out badly in not chasing the foreign workers vote here, surely there is 30/40,000 non nationals who are eligible to vote also (I may be wrong on this), getting these onside would make a massive difference and would almost certainly ensure victory.

A demographic who mostly either originate from Communist Bloc states, banana republics or African autocracy's. In my experience they've an aversion to politics and government authority that is more than understandable given the cnuts they're used to seeing in charge. Very few I've ever met could give a rat's arse about politics much less the constitutional position of Northern Ireland. Because of the basket case governments they and their parents have fled from it's very difficult to get them to engage with anything even remotely government related. Which is perhaps best exemplified with the evidence that non-nationals are the demographic most likely to distrust the safety of Covid vaccines.

[seafoid]

https://www.ft.com/content/a55218e0-965a-4a38-b210-6df4e94ba7ac


Policy-wise, the prime minister has committed the British government to legislating new provisions on the Irish language, and on abortion access in Northern Ireland. Equally importantly, the government will bring forward new proposals on how to tackle prosecution over historic offences. Here's the crucial paragraph: "These are different from those in our Command Paper last year. We have listened to many people in recent months and reflected on what we heard. Dealing with the past will still require difficult decisions but there will be no blanket amnesty. Immunity will only be available to those who co-operate and prosecutions could follow for those who do not."

[Orior]

My class mate in St Colman's College Newry

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-62927955

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

My class mate in St Colman's College Newry

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-62927955

Terrible. Go ndéanfaidh Dia trócaire air

[seafoid]

My class mate in St Colman's College Newry

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-62927955

Brutal. And to have to wait 30 years.

[imtommygunn]

That's disgusting  Poor guy and poor family.

[JPGJOHNNYG]

 Those few bad apples we keep hearing about must have been very busy ffs

[grounded]

My class mate in St Colman's College Newry

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-62927955

The family put through an awful time. His grave was desecrated as well by loyalists.



         

[Eamonnca1]

Those few bad apples we keep hearing about must have been very busy ffs

Purveyors of the "bad apples" analogy seem to forget the point of it. A few bad apples can cause the whole barrel to rot.

[Farrandeelin]

Unsure if this is the right thread, or the census one, or the Queen one, or the United Ireland discussion one...but I see if the DUP don't agree to getting the institutions up and running by October 28th there'll be another election before Christmas. Is this true? And if it is then what if there's no change in the seat numbers? What if the protocol still hasn't gone their way?

(It's probably being discussed on the other threads btw. )

[pbat]

They'll drag it on and on and find ways out of calling an election, SF will pick up a few more seats and probably so will the DUP but the outcome will be very little difference to the last results.

[Sportacus]

Unsure if this is the right thread, or the census one, or the Queen one, or the United Ireland discussion one...but I see if the DUP don't agree to getting the institutions up and running by October 28th there'll be another election before Christmas. Is this true? And if it is then what if there's no change in the seat numbers? What if the protocol still hasn't gone their way?

(It's probably being discussed on the other threads btw. )

It's up to the SOS.  The only reason he will call one is if he thinks DUP might pick up a few extra seats and pip SF, putting off the evil day when nationalists are First Minister.  There is literally no other reason to call one.  He has the power to extend the current status quo and give the Protocol talks a chance.